Draper G J, Stiller C A, Cartwright R A, Craft A W, Vincent T J
Childhood Cancer Research Group, University of Oxford.
BMJ. 1993 Jan 9;306(6870):89-94. doi: 10.1136/bmj.306.6870.89.
To reappraise the epidemiological findings reported by the Black Advisory Group concerning a possible excess of malignant disease, particularly of childhood acute lymphoid leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphomas, in the vicinity of the Sellafield nuclear installation, and to determine whether any excess of malignant disease had occurred among people aged 0-24 years in the area in the years after the Black report--that is, from 1984 to 1990.
Calculation of incidence of cancer using data from population based cancer registries and special surveys.
England and Wales; county of Cumbria; county districts Allerdale and Copeland within Cumbria; Seascale ward within Copeland.
All residents under the age of 75 years in the above areas, but with particular reference to those aged 0-24 years.
Numbers of cases and incidence particularly of lymphoid leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphomas in those aged 0-24 years, but including other cancers and age groups.
Previous reports of an increased incidence of cancer, especially of leukaemia, among those aged 0-24 years in Seascale during the period up to and including 1983 are confirmed. During 1984-90 there was an excess of total cancer among those aged 0-24 years. This was based on four cases including two cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma but none of leukaemia. There was an increased, but nonsignificant, incidence of other cancers, based on two cases (one pinealoma and one Hodgkin's disease) occurring among those aged 15-24 years during 1984-90. This was not observed in the younger age group or in previous years. For the immediately surrounding area--that is, the county districts of Allerdale and Copeland excluding Seascale and in the remainder of Cumbria--there was no evidence of an increased incidence of cancer among those aged 0-24 years in either period.
During 1963-83 and 1984-90 the incidence of malignant disease, particularly lymphoid leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphomas, in young people aged 0-24 in Seascale was higher than would be expected on the basis of either national rates or those for the surrounding areas. Although this increased risk is unlikely to be due to chance, the reasons for it are still unknown.
重新评估布莱克咨询小组报告的关于在塞拉菲尔德核设施附近可能存在恶性疾病（尤其是儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病和非霍奇金淋巴瘤）过多情况的流行病学研究结果，并确定在布莱克报告之后的几年（即1984年至1990年）该地区0至24岁人群中是否发生了恶性疾病过多的情况。
利用基于人群的癌症登记处数据和专项调查计算癌症发病率。
英格兰和威尔士；坎布里亚郡；坎布里亚郡内的阿勒代尔和考佩兰县区；考佩兰区内的西赛克尔选区。
上述地区所有75岁以下居民，但特别提及0至24岁人群。
0至24岁人群中尤其是淋巴白血病和非霍奇金淋巴瘤的病例数和发病率，但也包括其他癌症和年龄组。
之前关于1983年及之前西赛克尔0至24岁人群中癌症发病率升高（尤其是白血病）的报告得到证实。在1984 - 90年期间，0至24岁人群中总癌症病例数过多。这基于4例病例，包括2例非霍奇金淋巴瘤，但无白血病病例。基于1984 - 90年期间15至24岁人群中发生的2例病例（1例松果体瘤和1例霍奇金病），其他癌症的发病率有所上升，但无统计学意义。在较年轻年龄组或之前年份未观察到这种情况。对于紧邻地区，即阿勒代尔和考佩兰县区（不包括西赛克尔）以及坎布里亚郡的其余地区，在这两个时期均无证据表明0至24岁人群中癌症发病率升高。
在1963 - 83年和1984 - 90年期间，西赛克尔0至24岁年轻人中恶性疾病（尤其是淋巴白血病和非霍奇金淋巴瘤）的发病率高于基于全国发病率或周边地区发病率所预期的水平。尽管这种风险增加不太可能是偶然因素导致，但原因仍不明。
