Wang Chenghao, Song Jiyun, Shi Dachuan, Reyna Janet L, Horsey Henry, Feron Sarah, Zhou Yuyu, Ouyang Zutao, Li Ying, Jackson Robert B
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 18;14(1):6434. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41458-5.
Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1-37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from -9% to 40% with consistent south-north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: -2.5% to -2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and -17.1% to -8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.
气候、技术和社会经济变化将影响城市未来的建筑能源使用。然而，当前低分辨率的区域和州级分析不足以可靠地辅助城市层面的决策。在此，我们采用自下而上的方法估算了美国277个城市地区到本世纪中叶的每小时建筑能耗。预计未来气候变化将导致城市地区能源使用强度（EUI）出现异质性变化，特别是在升温幅度更大的情景下，建筑用电EUI峰值出现频率平均增加10.1%-37.7%，但在一些城市增幅超过110%。每升温1°C，城市尺度的空间调节EUI在空间制冷/制热方面平均分别增加/减少约14%/约10%。城市尺度建筑源能源使用的异质性变化主要由人口和电力部门变化驱动，在不同情景下平均变化范围为-9%至40%，呈现出一致的南北梯度。在此处考虑的所有情景中，城市尺度建筑源能源使用的变化，在所有城市地区平均后如下：由于气候变化为-2.5%至-2.0%，由于人口增长为7.3%至52.2%，由于电力部门脱碳为-17.1%至-8.9%。我们的研究结果强调了在发展可持续和有韧性的城市能源系统时考虑城市间异质性的必要性。
