Costard Solenne, Espejo Luis, Groenendaal Huybert, Zagmutt Francisco J
Emerg Infect Dis. 2017 Jun;23(6):957-964. doi: 10.3201/eid2306.151603.
The growing popularity of unpasteurized milk in the United States raises public health concerns. We estimated outbreak-related illnesses and hospitalizations caused by the consumption of cow's milk and cheese contaminated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter spp. using a model relying on publicly available outbreak data. In the United States, outbreaks associated with dairy consumption cause, on average, 760 illnesses/year and 22 hospitalizations/year, mostly from Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. Unpasteurized milk, consumed by only 3.2% of the population, and cheese, consumed by only 1.6% of the population, caused 96% of illnesses caused by contaminated dairy products. Unpasteurized dairy products thus cause 840 (95% CrI 611-1,158) times more illnesses and 45 (95% CrI 34-59) times more hospitalizations than pasteurized products. As consumption of unpasteurized dairy products grows, illnesses will increase steadily; a doubling in the consumption of unpasteurized milk or cheese could increase outbreak-related illnesses by 96%.
在美国，未经巴氏杀菌的牛奶越来越受欢迎，这引发了公众对健康问题的担忧。我们使用一个依赖公开可得疫情数据的模型，估算了因食用受产志贺毒素大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌属、单核细胞增生李斯特菌和弯曲杆菌属污染的牛奶和奶酪而导致的与疫情相关的疾病和住院情况。在美国，与乳制品消费相关的疫情平均每年导致760例疾病和22例住院，主要由沙门氏菌属和弯曲杆菌属引起。仅3.2%的人口饮用未经巴氏杀菌的牛奶，仅1.6%的人口食用奶酪，而这些产品导致了受污染乳制品引发疾病的96%。因此，未经巴氏杀菌的乳制品引发的疾病比经过巴氏杀菌的产品多840（95%可信区间611 - 1158）倍，住院情况多45（95%可信区间34 - 59）倍。随着未经巴氏杀菌的乳制品消费增加，疾病将稳步上升；未经巴氏杀菌的牛奶或奶酪消费翻倍可能会使与疫情相关的疾病增加96%。
