Nathues H, Alarcon P, Rushton J, Jolie R, Fiebig K, Jimenez M, Geurts V, Nathues C
Clinic for Swine, Department of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Production and Population Health, Royal Veterinary College of London, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2017 Jul 1;142:16-29. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.04.006. Epub 2017 Apr 27.
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is reported to be among the diseases with the highest economic impact in modern pig production worldwide. Yet, the economic impact of the disease at farm level is not well understood as, especially in endemically infected pig herds, losses are often not obvious. It is therefore difficult for farmers and veterinarians to appraise whether control measures such as virus elimination or vaccination will be economically beneficial for their farm. Thus, aim of this study was to develop an epidemiological and economic model to determine the costs of PRRS for an individual pig farm. In a production model that simulates farm outputs, depending on farm type, farrowing rhythm or length of suckling period, an epidemiological model was integrated. In this, the impact of PRRS infection on health and productivity was estimated. Financial losses were calculated in a gross margin analysis and a partial budget analysis based on the changes in health and production parameters assumed for different PRRS disease severities. Data on the effects of endemic infection on reproductive performance, morbidity and mortality, daily weight gain, feed efficiency and treatment costs were obtained from literature and expert opinion. Nine different disease scenarios were calculated, in which a farrow-to-finish farm (1000 sows) was slightly, moderately or severely affected by PRRS, based on changes in health and production parameters, and either in breeding, in nursery and fattening or in all three stages together. Annual losses ranged from a median of € 75'724 (90% confidence interval (C.I.): € 78'885-€ 122'946), if the farm was slightly affected in nursery and fattening, to a median of € 650'090 (90% C.I. € 603'585-€ 698'379), if the farm was severely affected in all stages. Overall losses were slightly higher if breeding was affected than if nursery and fattening were affected. In a herd moderately affected in all stages, median losses in breeding were € 46'021 and € 422'387 in fattening, whereas costs were € 25'435 lower in nursery, compared with a PRRSV-negative farm. The model is a valuable decision-support tool for farmers and veterinarians if a farm is proven to be affected by PRRS (confirmed by laboratory diagnosis). The output can help to understand the need for interventions in case of significant impact on the profitability of their enterprise. The model can support veterinarians in their communication to farmers in cases where costly disease control measures are justified.
据报道，猪繁殖与呼吸综合征（PRRS）是全球现代养猪生产中经济影响最大的疾病之一。然而，该疾病在农场层面的经济影响尚未得到充分理解，因为特别是在地方流行感染的猪群中，损失往往并不明显。因此，农民和兽医很难评估诸如病毒清除或疫苗接种等控制措施对他们的农场是否具有经济益处。因此，本研究的目的是开发一种流行病学和经济模型，以确定单个养猪场的PRRS成本。在一个根据农场类型、产仔节奏或哺乳期长度模拟农场产出的生产模型中，整合了一个流行病学模型。在该模型中，估计了PRRS感染对健康和生产力的影响。根据不同PRRS疾病严重程度假设的健康和生产参数变化，通过毛利率分析和部分预算分析计算财务损失。关于地方流行感染对繁殖性能、发病率和死亡率、日增重、饲料效率和治疗成本影响的数据来自文献和专家意见。计算了九种不同的疾病情景，其中一个从产仔到育肥的农场（1000头母猪）根据健康和生产参数的变化，在繁殖、保育和育肥阶段或所有三个阶段一起受到PRRS的轻度、中度或重度影响。如果农场在保育和育肥阶段受到轻度影响，年度损失中位数为75724欧元（90%置信区间（C.I.）：78885欧元至122946欧元）；如果农场在所有阶段都受到严重影响，年度损失中位数为650090欧元（90% C.I. 603585欧元至698379欧元）。如果繁殖阶段受到影响，总体损失略高于保育和育肥阶段受到影响的情况。在一个所有阶段都受到中度影响的猪群中，繁殖阶段的损失中位数为
