Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, Amsterdam 1081 HV, The Netherlands.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2017 Jun 15;8:15697. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15697.
Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971-2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4-16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4-15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.
水资源短缺在许多地区迅速加剧。在一项新颖的多模型评估中，我们研究了人类干预（HI：土地利用和土地覆盖变化、人造水库和人类用水）如何影响 1971 年至 2010 年期间的月河流水资源可利用性和水资源短缺。结果表明，HI 极大地改变了水资源短缺的关键维度，使全球 8.8%（7.4-16.5%）的人口的水资源短缺状况恶化，但同时使另外 8.3%（6.4-15.8%）的人口的水资源短缺状况得到缓解。HI 的积极影响主要发生在上游，而 HI 则加剧了下游的水资源短缺；HI 导致水资源短缺向下游转移。HI 对水资源短缺变化的归因复杂，因水文模型而异。影响和主要 HI 成分的季节性变化也很大。因此，要成功地通过 HI 适应水资源短缺，就必须充分考虑 HI 成分之间的时空变化的相互作用以及不确定性。
