Metcalf C Jessica E, Lessler Justin
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Science. 2017 Jul 14;357(6347):149-152. doi: 10.1126/science.aam8335.
The term "pathogen emergence" encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.
“病原体出现”这一术语涵盖了从以前未被识别的病毒进入人类群体,到已有的病原体侵入新群体以及耐药性的演变等所有情况。新兴病原体的数学模型可以预测病例数量、调查传播机制并评估控制方案。然而,其使用存在许多限制和陷阱,这往往是由数据稀缺导致的。病原体遗传学和人类生态学数据的日益丰富,再加上计算和方法上的创新,正在增强模型为应对病原体出现事件的公共卫生措施提供信息的能力。将传染病模型与公共卫生实践更紧密地结合起来,并随时准备好资源,有可能提高应对措施的及时性和质量。