Tavecchia Giacomo, Miranda Miguel-Angel, Borrás David, Bengoa Mikel, Barceló Carlos, Paredes-Esquivel Claudia, Schwarz Carl
Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), c. Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Spain.
Laboratory of Zoology, Department of Biology, University of the Balearic Island, c. Valldemossa s/n, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Front Zool. 2017 Jul 27;14:39. doi: 10.1186/s12983-017-0217-x. eCollection 2017.
(Diptera; Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito species and a competent vector of several arboviral diseases that have spread rapidly throughout the world. Prevalence and patterns of dispersal of the mosquito are of central importance for an effective control of the species. We used site-occupancy models accounting for false negative detections to estimate the prevalence, the turnover, the movement pattern and the growth rate in the number of sites occupied by the mosquito in 17 localities throughout Mallorca Island.
Site-occupancy probability increased from 0.35 in the 2012, year of first reported observation of the species, to 0.89 in 2015. Despite a steady increase in mosquito presence, the extinction probability was generally high indicating a high turnover in the occupied sites. We considered two site-dependent covariates, namely the distance from the point of first observation and the estimated yearly occupancy rate in the neighborhood, as predicted by diffusion models. Results suggested that mosquito distribution during the first year was consistent with what predicted by simple diffusion models, but was not consistent with the diffusion model in subsequent years when it was similar to those expected from leapfrog dispersal events.
Assuming a single initial colonization event, the spread of in Mallorca followed two distinct phases, an early one consistent with diffusion movements and a second consistent with long distance, 'leapfrog', movements. The colonization of the island was fast, with ~90% of the sites estimated to be occupied 3 years after the colonization. The fast spread was likely to have occurred through vectors related to human mobility such as cars or other vehicles. Surveillance and management actions near the introduction point would only be effective during the early steps of the colonization.
（双翅目；蚊科）是一种极具入侵性的蚊虫物种，也是几种虫媒病毒疾病的有效传播媒介，这些疾病已在全球迅速传播。该蚊虫的流行情况和扩散模式对于有效控制该物种至关重要。我们使用考虑了假阴性检测的位点占用模型，来估计马略卡岛17个地区该蚊虫占据位点的患病率、周转率、移动模式和数量增长率。
位点占用概率从2012年（该物种首次报告观察到的年份）的0.35增加到2015年的0.89。尽管蚊虫出现的频率稳步增加，但灭绝概率总体较高，表明被占据位点的周转率较高。我们考虑了两个与位点相关的协变量，即距首次观察点的距离以及扩散模型预测的邻域估计年占用率。结果表明，第一年的蚊虫分布与简单扩散模型预测的一致，但在随后几年与扩散模型不一致，此时类似于蛙跳扩散事件预期的分布。
假设只有一次初始定殖事件，马略卡岛的扩散遵循两个不同阶段，早期阶段与扩散移动一致，第二个阶段与长距离“蛙跳”移动一致。该岛的定殖速度很快，估计定殖3年后约90%的位点被占据。快速扩散可能是通过与人类流动相关的媒介，如汽车或其他车辆发生的。在引入点附近的监测和管理行动仅在定殖的早期阶段有效。
