Baeza Andres, Santos-Vega Mauricio, Dobson Andrew P, Pascual Mercedes
National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland 21401, USA.
School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85281, USA.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Mar 20;1(5):108. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0108.
Land-use change is the main force behind ecological and social change in many countries around the globe; it is primarily driven by resource needs and external economic incentives. Concomitantly, transformations of the land are the main drivers for the emergence and re-emergence of malaria. An understanding of malaria population dynamics in transforming landscapes is lacking, despite its relevance for developmental and public health policies. We develop a mathematical model that couples malaria epidemiology with the socio-economic and demographic processes that occur in a landscape undergoing land-use change. This allows us to identify different types of malaria dynamics that can arise in early stages of this transformation. In particular, we show that an increase in transmission followed by either a decline, or a further enhancement, of risk is a common outcome. This increase results from the asymmetry between the relatively fast ecological changes in transformed landscapes, and the slower pace of investment in malaria protection. These results underscore the importance of reducing ecological risk, while providing services and economic opportunities to early migrants for longer periods. Consideration of these socio-ecological processes and, more importantly, the temporal scale on which they act, is critical to avoid potential bifurcations that lead to long-lasting endemic malaria.
土地利用变化是全球许多国家生态和社会变化的主要驱动力；它主要由资源需求和外部经济激励因素驱动。与此同时，土地的转变是疟疾出现和再次出现的主要驱动因素。尽管了解转变中的景观中的疟疾种群动态与发展和公共卫生政策相关，但目前仍缺乏这方面的认识。我们开发了一个数学模型，将疟疾流行病学与正在经历土地利用变化的景观中发生的社会经济和人口过程相结合。这使我们能够识别在这种转变的早期阶段可能出现的不同类型的疟疾动态。特别是，我们表明，传播增加后风险下降或进一步增加是常见的结果。这种增加是由于转变后的景观中相对快速的生态变化与疟疾防护投资的较慢步伐之间的不对称所致。这些结果强调了降低生态风险的重要性，同时为早期移民提供更长时间的服务和经济机会。考虑这些社会生态过程，更重要的是，考虑它们作用的时间尺度，对于避免导致长期地方性疟疾的潜在分歧至关重要。
