Bowman David M J S, Williamson Grant J, Abatzoglou John T, Kolden Crystal A, Cochrane Mark A, Smith Alistair M S
School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
College of Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho 83844-3021, USA.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Feb 6;1(3):58. doi: 10.1038/s41559-016-0058.
Extreme wildfires have substantial economic, social and environmental impacts, but there is uncertainty whether such events are inevitable features of the Earth's fire ecology or a legacy of poor management and planning. We identify 478 extreme wildfire events defined as the daily clusters of fire radiative power from MODIS, within a global 10 × 10 km lattice, between 2002 and 2013, which exceeded the 99.997th percentile of over 23 million cases of the ΣFRP 100 km in the MODIS record. These events are globally distributed across all flammable biomes, and are strongly associated with extreme fire weather conditions. Extreme wildfire events reported as being economically or socially disastrous (n = 144) were concentrated in suburban areas in flammable-forested biomes of the western United States and southeastern Australia, noting potential biases in reporting and the absence of globally comprehensive data of fire disasters. Climate change projections suggest an increase in days conducive to extreme wildfire events by 20 to 50% in these disaster-prone landscapes, with sharper increases in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere and European Mediterranean Basin.
极端野火会产生重大的经济、社会和环境影响，但此类事件究竟是地球火灾生态系统不可避免的特征，还是管理和规划不善的后果，仍存在不确定性。我们确定了478起极端野火事件，这些事件被定义为2002年至2013年期间全球10×10千米网格内来自中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）的每日火辐射功率集群，其超过了MODIS记录中超过2300万个100千米火辐射功率总和案例的第99.997百分位数。这些事件在全球所有易燃生物群落中均有分布，并且与极端火灾天气状况密切相关。报告称造成经济或社会灾难的极端野火事件（n = 144）集中在美国西部和澳大利亚东南部易燃森林生物群落的郊区，同时指出报告中可能存在偏差以及缺乏全球范围内全面的火灾灾害数据。气候变化预测表明，在这些易受灾地区，有利于极端野火事件发生的天数将增加20%至50%，在南半球亚热带地区和欧洲地中海盆地增幅更为显著。
