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地球上最极端野火的发生频率和强度不断增加。

Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth.

作者信息

Cunningham Calum X, Williamson Grant J, Bowman David M J S

机构信息

Fire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

出版信息

Nat Ecol Evol. 2024 Aug;8(8):1420-1425. doi: 10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2. Epub 2024 Jun 24.

DOI:10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2
PMID:38914710
Abstract

Climate change is exacerbating wildfire conditions, but evidence is lacking for global trends in extreme fire activity itself. Here we identify energetically extreme wildfire events by calculating daily clusters of summed fire radiative power using 21 years of satellite data, revealing that the frequency of extreme events (≥99.99th percentile) increased by 2.2-fold from 2003 to 2023, with the last 7 years including the 6 most extreme. Although the total area burned on Earth may be declining, our study highlights that fire behaviour is worsening in several regions-particularly the boreal and temperate conifer biomes-with substantial implications for carbon storage and human exposure to wildfire disasters.

摘要

气候变化正在加剧野火状况,但关于极端火灾活动本身的全球趋势的证据却很缺乏。在此,我们通过利用21年的卫星数据计算每日累计火灾辐射功率的聚类,识别出能量极端的野火事件,结果显示,极端事件(≥第99.99百分位数)的频率在2003年至2023年间增加了2.2倍,过去7年包含了最极端的6年。尽管地球上的总燃烧面积可能在下降,但我们的研究强调,在几个地区,尤其是北方和温带针叶林生物群落,火灾行为正在恶化,这对碳储存和人类遭受野火灾害有重大影响。

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