Fann Neal, Kim Sun-Young, Olives Casey, Sheppard Lianne
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park , North Carolina, USA.
Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University , Seoul, Korea.
Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Sep 6;125(9):097003. doi: 10.1289/EHP507.
PM2.5 precursor emissions have declined over the course of several decades, following the implementation of local, state, and federal air quality policies. Estimating the corresponding change in population exposure and PM2.5-attributable risk of death prior to the year 2000 is made difficult by the lack of PM2.5 monitoring data.
We used a new technique to estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations, and estimated the effects of changes in PM2.5 population exposures on mortality in adults (age ≥30y), and on life expectancy at birth, in the contiguous United States during 1980-2010.
We estimated annual mean county-level PM2.5 concentrations in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using universal kriging incorporating geographic variables. County-level death rates and national life tables for each year were obtained from the U.S. Census and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used log-linear and nonlinear concentration-response coefficients from previous studies to estimate changes in the numbers of deaths and in life years and life expectancy at birth, attributable to changes in PM2.5.
Between 1980 and 2010, population-weighted PM2.5 exposures fell by about half, and the estimated number of excess deaths declined by about a third. The States of California, Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia had some of the largest estimated reductions in PM2.5-attributable deaths. Relative to a counterfactual population with exposures held constant at 1980 levels, we estimated that people born in 2050 would experience an ∼1-y increase in life expectancy at birth, and that there would be a cumulative gain of 4.4 million life years among adults ≥30y of age.
Our estimates suggest that declines in PM2.5 exposures between 1980 and 2010 have benefitted public health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507.
在地方、州和联邦空气质量政策实施后的几十年里，细颗粒物（PM2.5）前体物排放有所下降。由于缺乏2000年以前的PM2.5监测数据，估算相应时期内人群暴露水平的变化以及PM2.5所致死亡风险变得困难。
我们使用一种新技术来估算历史PM2.5浓度，并评估1980 - 2010年期间美国本土PM2.5人群暴露水平变化对成年人（年龄≥30岁）死亡率以及出生时预期寿命的影响。
我们使用结合地理变量的通用克里金法估算了1980年、1990年、2000年和2010年县级年均PM2.5浓度。每年的县级死亡率和全国生命表来自美国人口普查局和疾病控制与预防中心。我们利用先前研究中的对数线性和非线性浓度 - 反应系数，估算因PM2.5变化导致的死亡人数、生命年数和出生时预期寿命的变化。
1980年至2010年期间，人口加权的PM2.5暴露水平下降了约一半，估计的超额死亡人数下降了约三分之一。加利福尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州、新泽西州和佐治亚州的PM2.5所致死亡估计减少量最大。相对于暴露水平保持在1980年水平不变的反事实人群，我们估计2050年出生的人出生时预期寿命将增加约1岁，30岁及以上成年人的累计生命年数将增加440万。
我们的估计表明，1980年至2010年期间PM2.5暴露水平的下降有益于公众健康。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507
