Tuite Ashleigh R, Gift Thomas L, Chesson Harrell W, Hsu Katherine, Salomon Joshua A, Grad Yonatan H
Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
J Infect Dis. 2017 Nov 27;216(9):1141-1149. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix450.
Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread.
A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C). We evaluated time to 1% and 5% prevalence of resistant strains among all isolates with the following: (1) empiric treatment (B and C), and treatment guided by POC tests determining susceptibility to (2) A only and (3) all 3 antibiotics.
Continued empiric treatment without POC testing was projected to result in >5% of isolates being resistant to both B and C within 15 years. Use of either POC test in 10% of identified cases delayed this by 5 years. The 3 antibiotic POC test delayed the time to reach 1% prevalence of triply-resistant strains by 6 years, whereas the A-only test resulted in no delay. Results were less sensitive to assumptions about fitness costs and test characteristics with increasing test uptake.
Rapid diagnostics reporting antibiotic susceptibility may extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for gonorrhea treatment, but ongoing monitoring of resistance patterns will be critical.
抗生素耐药性不断增加限制了淋病的治疗选择。我们研究了一种假设的即时检测(POC)报告抗生素敏感性谱对减缓耐药性传播的影响。
一个描述淋病传播的数学模型纳入了基于环丙沙星(A)、阿奇霉素(B)和头孢曲松(C)特性的耐药性出现概率和与耐药性相关的适应性成本。我们评估了在以下情况下所有分离株中耐药菌株患病率达到1%和5%所需的时间:(1)经验性治疗(B和C),以及由POC检测指导的治疗,该检测确定对(2)仅A和(3)所有3种抗生素的敏感性。
预计持续进行无POC检测的经验性治疗将导致15年内>5%的分离株对B和C均耐药。在10%的确诊病例中使用任何一种POC检测可将此情况推迟5年。3种抗生素的POC检测将三重耐药菌株患病率达到1%的时间推迟了6年,而仅检测A的检测则没有延迟。随着检测使用率的增加,结果对适应性成本和检测特性假设的敏感性降低。
报告抗生素敏感性的快速诊断可能会延长现有抗生素在淋病治疗中的效用,但持续监测耐药模式至关重要。