Lee Katherine D, Finnoff David, Daszak Peter
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 2334, Moscow, ID, 83844-2334, USA.
Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA.
Ecohealth. 2018 Jun;15(2):317-326. doi: 10.1007/s10393-017-1292-3. Epub 2017 Dec 11.
Trade eliminates geographic barriers, allowing for novel exchange of goods and services, but also creates pathways for the unintentional spread of infectious pathogens such as foot and mouth disease. In the absence of trade regulation, a producer's choice of import origin depends on relative prices and costs associated with trading partners. This paper develops a framework for exploring importer behavior in a non-regulated economy, allowing for price and risk heterogeneity among potential import sources. In the model, importers determine the risk of introducing foot and mouth disease to home soil and choose import volumes using risk and market data. When importers consider the possibility of unreported or undetected outbreaks, they choose to import from multiple sources to minimize risk and simultaneously create gains from trade over the regulated outcome. Our results have implications for the development of import and inspection policies that could be specifically designed to target highest risk imports of livestock.
贸易消除了地理障碍，促进了商品和服务的新型交换，但也为口蹄疫等传染性病原体的无意传播创造了途径。在缺乏贸易监管的情况下，生产商对进口来源的选择取决于与贸易伙伴相关的相对价格和成本。本文建立了一个框架，用于探究非管制经济中进口商的行为，该框架考虑到潜在进口来源之间的价格和风险异质性。在该模型中，进口商确定将口蹄疫引入本国的风险，并利用风险和市场数据来选择进口量。当进口商考虑到未报告或未检测到的疫情爆发的可能性时，他们会选择从多个来源进口，以将风险降至最低，并同时在管制结果之上创造贸易收益。我们的研究结果对进口和检验政策的制定具有启示意义，这些政策可以专门设计用于针对最高风险的牲畜进口。
