Ma Jun, Xiao Jianhua, Gao Xiang, Liu Boyang, Chen Hao, Wang Hongbin
Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.
PeerJ. 2017 Dec 22;5:e4193. doi: 10.7717/peerj.4193. eCollection 2017.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. An outbreak of FMD can produce devastating economic losses for a considerable length of time. In order to investigate the distribution characteristics of FMD in China, data from 2010 to 2016 were collected, including information on 65 outbreaks of FMD (25 by serotype A and 40 by serotype O), and 5,937 diseased animals (1,691 serotype A and 4,284 serotype O cases). Spatial autocorrelation, including global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, as well as directional distribution analysis, were performed. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of FMD cases from 2010 to 2016 did not show clustering ( > 0.05). In 2013 and 2014, the FMD serotype A hotspots areas were Tibet ( = 3.3236, < 0.001 in 2013; = 3.2001, < 0.001 in 2014) and Xinjiang provinces ( = 4.2113, < 0.001 in 2013; = 3.9888, < 0.001 in 2014). The FMD serotype O hotspots areas were: Xinjiang ( = 2.5832, = 0.0098) province in 2010; Tibet ( = 3.8814, < 0.001) and Xinjiang ( = 4.9128, < 0.001) provinces in 2011; and Tibet ( = 3.0838, = 0.0020), Xinjiang ( = 3.8705, < 0.001) and Qinghai ( = 2.8875, = 0.0039) provinces in 2013. The distribution of FMD cases from 2010 to 2016 showed a significant directional trend (northwest-southeast). In conclusion, our findings revealed the spatial patterns of FMD cases, which may provide beneficial information for the prevention and control of FMD.
口蹄疫(FMD)是偶蹄动物的一种高度传染性疾病。口蹄疫疫情在相当长一段时间内会造成毁灭性的经济损失。为了调查口蹄疫在中国的分布特征,收集了2010年至2016年的数据,包括65起口蹄疫疫情的信息(A型血清型25起,O型血清型40起),以及5937头患病动物(A型血清型1691例,O型血清型4284例)。进行了空间自相关分析,包括全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关,以及方向分布分析。2010年至2016年口蹄疫病例的全局空间自相关分析未显示聚类(>0.05)。2013年和2014年,口蹄疫A型血清型热点地区为西藏(2013年Z = 3.3236,P < 0.001;2014年Z = 3.2001,P < 0.001)和新疆自治区(2013年Z = 4.2113,P < 0.001;2014年Z = 3.9888,P < 0.001)。口蹄疫O型血清型热点地区为:2010年的新疆自治区(Z = 2.5832,P = 0.0098);2011年的西藏(Z = 3.8814,P < 0.001)和新疆自治区(Z = 4.9128,P < 0.001);以及2013年的西藏(Z = 3.0838,P = 0.0020)、新疆自治区(Z = 3.8705,P < 0.001)和青海省(Z = 2.8875,P = 0.0039)。2010年至2016年口蹄疫病例的分布呈现出显著的方向趋势(西北 - 东南)。总之,我们的研究结果揭示了口蹄疫病例的空间模式,这可能为口蹄疫的预防和控制提供有益信息。