Mannocci Laura, Roberts Jason J, Halpin Patrick N, Authier Matthieu, Boisseau Oliver, Bradai Mohamed Nejmeddine, Cañadas Ana, Chicote Carla, David Léa, Di-Méglio Nathalie, Fortuna Caterina M, Frantzis Alexandros, Gazo Manel, Genov Tilen, Hammond Philip S, Holcer Draško, Kaschner Kristin, Kerem Dani, Lauriano Giancarlo, Lewis Tim, Notarbartolo di Sciara Giuseppe, Panigada Simone, Raga Juan Antonio, Scheinin Aviad, Ridoux Vincent, Vella Adriana, Vella Joseph
Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
UMR MARBEC (IRD, Ifremer, Université de Montpellier, CNRS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, Avenue Jean Monnet, CS 30171, 34203, Sète, France.
Sci Rep. 2018 Feb 15;8(1):3126. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-19842-9.
Heterogeneous data collection in the marine environment has led to large gaps in our knowledge of marine species distributions. To fill these gaps, models calibrated on existing data may be used to predict species distributions in unsampled areas, given that available data are sufficiently representative. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of mapping cetacean densities across the entire Mediterranean Sea using models calibrated on available survey data and various environmental covariates. We aggregated 302,481 km of line transect survey effort conducted in the Mediterranean Sea within the past 20 years by many organisations. Survey coverage was highly heterogeneous geographically and seasonally: large data gaps were present in the eastern and southern Mediterranean and in non-summer months. We mapped the extent of interpolation versus extrapolation and the proportion of data nearby in environmental space when models calibrated on existing survey data were used for prediction across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using model predictions to map cetacean densities in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, characterised by warmer, less productive waters, and more intense eddy activity, would lead to potentially unreliable extrapolations. We stress the need for systematic surveys of cetaceans in these environmentally unique Mediterranean waters, particularly in non-summer months.
海洋环境中异构数据的收集导致我们对海洋物种分布的了解存在很大差距。为了填补这些差距，鉴于现有数据具有足够的代表性，可使用根据现有数据校准的模型来预测未采样区域的物种分布。我们的目标是评估利用根据现有调查数据和各种环境协变量校准的模型绘制整个地中海鲸类密度图的可行性。我们汇总了许多组织在过去20年内在地中海进行的302,481公里的样线调查工作。调查覆盖范围在地理和季节上高度不均一：地中海东部和南部以及非夏季月份存在大量数据空白。当使用根据现有调查数据校准的模型对整个地中海进行预测时，我们绘制了插值与外推的范围以及环境空间中附近数据的比例。利用模型预测绘制以温暖、生产力较低的水域和更强烈的涡旋活动为特征的地中海东部和南部的鲸类密度图，可能会导致潜在不可靠的外推。我们强调需要对这些环境独特的地中海海域的鲸类进行系统调查，特别是在非夏季月份。
