Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Research Foundation-Flanders, Brussels, Belgium.
PLoS One. 2018 Mar 8;13(3):e0194255. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194255. eCollection 2018.
We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team's lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.
我们验证了一个有关足球的假说,即进球的最佳时机恰好在中场休息之前。为此,我们分析了欧洲冠军联赛和欧洲联赛中 1179 场比赛的丰富数据。与这一假说相反,我们发现,在上半场的进球差和其他比赛特征的条件下,如果主队在上半场结束前进球,那么主队最终的进球差将降低 0.520 个。我们表明,这一发现与主队在下半场进球的概率较低有关。