Université Bordeaux, CNRS, IMB, UMR 5251, Talence F-33400, France.
Département Tronc Commun, École Polytechnique de Thiès, Sénégal.
Math Biosci. 2018 Jul;301:59-67. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.020. Epub 2018 Mar 29.
A model of an epidemic outbreak incorporating multiple subgroups of susceptible and infected individuals is investigated. The asymptotic behavior of the model is analyzed and it is proved that the infected classes all converge to 0. A computational algorithm is developed for the cumulative final size of infected individuals over the course of the epidemic. The results are applied to the SARS epidemic in Singapore in 2003, where it is shown that the two-peak evolution of the infected population can be attributed to a two-group formulation of transmission.
研究了一个包含多个易感和感染个体亚群的传染病爆发模型。分析了模型的渐近行为，并证明了感染类都收敛到 0。为传染病过程中感染个体的累积最终规模开发了一个计算算法。结果应用于 2003 年新加坡的 SARS 疫情，表明感染人群的双峰演化可以归因于传播的两组模型。
