Beard Emma, Brown Jamie, Michie Susan, West Robert
Cancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
Research Department of Educational, Clinical and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK.
BMJ Open. 2018 Jun 19;8(6):e016046. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-016046.
Many smokers use e-cigarettes and licensed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), often in an attempt to reduce their cigarette consumption. We estimated how far changes in prevalence of e-cigarette and NRT use while smoking were accompanied by changes in cigarette consumption at the population level.
Repeated representative cross-sectional population surveys of adults aged 16+ years in England.
We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling of monthly data between 2006 and 2016 from the Smoking Toolkit Study. Prevalence of e-cigarette use and NRT use in current smokers, and specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, were input variables. Mean daily cigarette consumption was the dependent variable. Analyses involved adjustment for mass media expenditure and tobacco-control policies.
No statistically significant associations were found between changes in use of e-cigarettes (β -0.012, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.002) or NRT (β 0.015, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.055) while smoking and daily cigarette consumption. Neither did we find clear evidence for an association between e-cigarette use (β -0.010, 95% CI -0.025 to 0.005 and β 0.011, 95%-0.027 to 0.004) or NRT use (β 0.006, 95%-0.030 to 0.043 and β 0.022, 95%-0.020 to 0.063) specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, respectively, and changes in daily cigarette consumption.
If use of e-cigarettes and licensed NRT while smoking acted to reduce cigarette consumption in England between 2006 and 2016, the effect was likely very small at a population level.
许多吸烟者使用电子烟和获得许可的尼古丁替代疗法（NRT），通常是为了减少卷烟消费。我们估计了在吸烟人群中电子烟和NRT使用率的变化与卷烟消费变化在人群层面上的伴随程度。
对英格兰16岁及以上成年人进行反复的具有代表性的横断面人群调查。
我们对2006年至2016年吸烟工具包研究的月度数据采用带外生输入的自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMAX）建模。当前吸烟者中电子烟使用和NRT使用的患病率，特别是用于减少吸烟和临时戒烟的患病率，为输入变量。日均卷烟消费量为因变量。分析涉及对大众媒体支出和烟草控制政策的调整。
在吸烟时电子烟使用（β -0.012，95%可信区间 -0.026至0.002）或NRT使用（β 0.015，95%可信区间 -0.026至0.055）的变化与每日卷烟消费量之间未发现具有统计学意义的关联。我们也未找到明确证据表明分别专门用于减少吸烟和临时戒烟的电子烟使用（β -0.010，95%可信区间 -0.025至0.005以及β 0.011，95% -0.027至0.004）或NRT使用（β 0.006，95% -0.030至0.043以及β 0.022，95% -0.020至0.063）与每日卷烟消费量变化之间存在关联。
如果在2006年至2016年期间，在吸烟时使用电子烟和获得许可的NRT对减少英格兰的卷烟消费有作用，则在人群层面上该效果可能非常小。
