Wei Guo-Ru, Shi Xing-Min
School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China.
National Demonstration Center for Experimental Geography Education(Shaanxi Normal University), Xi'an 710062, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2018 Jul 8;39(7):3014-3021. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.201710174.
The study evaluated the acute health damage effect of PM exposure in winter in Xi'an City, using the average concentration of PM (24 h) and the Average Poisson Regression Model for three consecutive years, from 2014 to 2016. The Corrected Human Capital Method was used to evaluate the economic loss from premature death. The cost of illness was used to assess the economic loss of hospitalization, illness and clinic. The results show that the economic loss in the study period (2014, 2015, 2016) caused by PM was about 33.523 billion yuan (95% CI: 24.961-36.975), 21.105 billion yuan (95% CI: 13.560-26.880), and 37.132 billion yuan (95% CI: 27.246-41.164). The proportions of GDP were as follows: 6.10% (4.54%-6.73%), 3.64% (2.34%-4.63%), and 5.91% (4.34%-6.55%) for each of the three years. The health economic loss was positively correlated with the average PM concentration in winter. PM pollutants have a significant impact on the health of residents in Xi'an. The number of reported cases was about 1071338 (95% CI: 646432-1385847), 438273 (95% CI: 246842-599989), and 1019503 (95% CI: 611407-1324547) for each of the three years. The effects on children with asthma were significantly higher than that on adults, while adults with chronic bronchitis were affected more significantly than children. This study can provide a scientific basis for cost-benefit analysis of the PM air quality standard in Xi'an, and provide a reference for the management of environment quality.
该研究利用2014年至2016年连续三年的PM（24小时）平均浓度和平均泊松回归模型，评估了西安市冬季PM暴露对健康的急性损害效应。采用修正的人力资本法评估过早死亡造成的经济损失。用疾病成本法评估住院、患病和门诊的经济损失。结果表明，研究期间（2014年、2015年、2016年）PM造成的经济损失分别约为335.23亿元（95%置信区间：249.61 - 369.75亿元）、211.05亿元（95%置信区间：135.60 - 268.80亿元）和371.32亿元（95%置信区间：272.46 - 411.64亿元）。占GDP的比例分别为：三年中每年6.10%（4.54% - 6.73%）、3.64%（2.34% - 4.63%）和5.91%（4.34% - 6.55%）。健康经济损失与冬季PM平均浓度呈正相关。PM污染物对西安市居民健康有显著影响。三年中每年报告的病例数分别约为1071338例（95%置信区间：646432 - 1385847例）、438273例（95%置信区间：246842 - 599989例）和1019503例（95%置信区间：611407 - 1324547例）。对哮喘儿童的影响明显高于成年人，而患有慢性支气管炎的成年人受影响比儿童更显著。本研究可为西安市PM空气质量标准的成本效益分析提供科学依据，并为环境质量管理提供参考。
