[2013年1月极端雾霾期间中国四个城市雾霾相关的人类健康风险评估]

[Assessment of haze-related human health risks for four Chinese cities during extreme haze in January 2013].

作者信息

Li Tian-tian, Du Yan-jun, Mo Yang, Xue Wen-bo, Xu Dong-qun, Wang Jin-nan

机构信息

Research office of Environmental Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Environmental Health & Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.

Institute of Environmental Health & Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Beijing 100021, China. Email:

出版信息

Zhonghua Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2013 Sep 10;93(34):2699-702.

PMID:24360100

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the human health risks (premature death risk as an indicator) in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an during extreme haze in January 2013.

METHODS

The daily average particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) concentrations of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an in January 2013 were collected and their characteristics explored. The populations and mortality rate of four cities in 2010 were collected from the statistical yearbook, the exposure-response relationships selected from the reference and then the premature death calculated according to the proportion risk model of Poisson regression.

RESULTS

In January 2013, the 24 h mean concentrations of PM2.5 in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an were (240 ± 165) , (83 ± 27), (94 ± 49) and (210 ± 98) µg/m(3) respectively and they were all above the secondary level of Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095-2012). The 24 h mean concentrations of PM2.5 in Beijing and Xi'an were much higher than those in Shanghai and Guangzhou. Approximately 86.4% (19/22) , 58.1% (18/31), 54.8% (17/31) and 93.5% (29/31) of 24 h mean PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an respectively exceeded the secondary level of Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095-2012). The number of premature death due to the exposure to haze were 725 (95%CI: 457-977) for Beijing, 296 (95%CI: 96-502) for Shanghai, 310 (95%CI: 189-434) for Guangzhou and 85 (95%CI: 21-141) for Xi'an respectively in January 2013.

CONCLUSION

The PM2.5 pollutions of four cities in January 2013 were serious enough to pose elevated risks of human health.

摘要

目的

评估2013年1月北京、上海、广州和西安极端雾霾期间的人类健康风险（以过早死亡风险为指标）。

方法

收集2013年1月北京、上海、广州和西安空气动力学直径≤2.5μm的颗粒物（PM2.5）日均浓度，并探讨其特征。从统计年鉴中收集四个城市2010年的人口和死亡率，从参考文献中选取暴露-反应关系，然后根据泊松回归的比例风险模型计算过早死亡人数。

结果

2013年1月，北京、上海、广州和西安的PM2.5 24小时平均浓度分别为（240±165）、（83±27）、（94±49）和（210±98）μg/m³，均高于《环境空气质量标准》（GB 3095-2012）二级标准。北京和西安的PM2.5 24小时平均浓度远高于上海和广州。北京、上海、广州和西安的PM2.5 24小时平均浓度分别约有86.4%（19/22）、58.1%（18/31）、54.8%（17/31）和93.5%（29/31）超过《环境空气质量标准》（GB 3095-2012）二级标准。2013年1月，北京因雾霾暴露导致的过早死亡人数为725例（95%CI：457-977），上海为296例（95%CI：96-502），广州为310例（95%CI：189-434），西安为85例（95%CI：21-141）。