Sivak S L, Wormser G P
Am J Clin Pathol. 1986 Jun;85(6):700-3. doi: 10.1093/ajcp/85.6.700.
A test for the detection of antibodies to HTLV-III is available and will be widely used to screen donated blood to prevent transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Based upon the sensitivity and specificity, the authors calculated the expected predictive values for different groups of asymptomatic individuals using Bayes' theorem. The prevalence of HTLV-III infection has great impact upon the positive and negative predictive values of the test. For a member of the general population there is a less than 3% chance that a positive test represents a true positive. High-risk patients, such as hemophiliacs, with a positive test will have a greater than 95% chance of actually having antibodies to HTLV-III, but the negative predictive value of the test in this group is less than ideal. The authors recommend that all positive tests for HTLV-III be confirmed by more specific methods when obtained in low-risk people. Members of high-risk groups for AIDS should continue to refrain from donating blood, despite the availability of the screening test.
有一种检测抗人类嗜T淋巴细胞病毒III型（HTLV-III）抗体的试验，该试验将被广泛用于筛查献血，以预防输血相关的获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）。基于敏感性和特异性，作者使用贝叶斯定理计算了不同组无症状个体的预期预测值。HTLV-III感染的患病率对该试验的阳性和阴性预测值有很大影响。对于普通人群中的一员，检测呈阳性代表真阳性的几率不到3%。高危患者，如血友病患者，检测呈阳性时实际拥有抗HTLV-III抗体的几率将超过95%，但该组试验的阴性预测值并不理想。作者建议，当在低风险人群中获得HTLV-III检测阳性结果时，所有阳性结果都应通过更特异的方法进行确认。尽管有筛查试验，但艾滋病高危人群的成员仍应继续避免献血。
