Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
Sci Rep. 2018 Aug 20;8(1):12452. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-30471-0.
We study the feedback processes between individual behavior, disease prevalence, interventions and social networks during an influenza pandemic when a limited stockpile of antivirals is shared between the private and the public sectors. An economic model that uses prevalence-elastic demand for interventions is combined with a detailed social network and a disease propagation model to understand the feedback mechanism between epidemic dynamics, market behavior, individual perceptions, and the social network. An urban and a rural region are simulated to assess the robustness of results. Results show that an optimal split between the private and public sectors can be reached to contain the disease but the accessibility of antivirals from the private sector is skewed towards the richest income quartile. Also, larger allocations to the private sector result in wastage where individuals who do not need it are able to purchase it but who need it cannot afford it. Disease prevalence increases with household size and total contact time but not by degree in the social network, whereas wastage of antivirals decreases with degree and contact time. The best utilization of drugs is achieved when individuals with high contact time use them, who tend to be the school-aged children of large families.
我们研究了在流感大流行期间，个人行为、疾病流行率、干预措施和社交网络之间的反馈过程，此时有限的抗病毒药物库存由私营和公共部门共享。我们使用对干预措施具有需求弹性的流行率来构建一个经济模型，该模型结合了详细的社交网络和疾病传播模型，以了解流行动态、市场行为、个人认知和社交网络之间的反馈机制。我们模拟了一个城市和一个农村地区，以评估结果的稳健性。结果表明，可以通过在私营和公共部门之间达成最佳分配来控制疾病，但抗病毒药物的可及性偏向于最富有收入的四分之一人群。此外，将更多资源分配给私营部门会导致浪费，因为那些不需要药物的人能够购买到，但那些需要药物的人却买不起。疾病流行率随着家庭规模和总接触时间的增加而增加，但在社交网络中并不随程度增加，而抗病毒药物的浪费则随着程度和接触时间的增加而减少。当具有高接触时间的个体使用药物时，药物的利用率最高，这些个体往往是大家庭中的学龄儿童。
