Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
School of Science and Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2018 Nov;99(5):1262-1268. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0544.
The transmission pattern of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is associated with environmental conditions, including meteorological factors and land-cover. In the present study, the association between HFRS and environmental factors (including maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index) were explored in two typical counties in Northeast and two counties in Northwest China with severe HFRS outbreaks by using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX). The results showed that rainfall with 3- to 4-month lag was closely associated with HFRS in the two counties in Northeast China, whereas relative humidity with 1- or 5-month lag significantly impacts HFRS transmission in the two counties in Northwest China. Moreover, the SARIMAX models exhibit accurate forecasting ability of HFRS cases. Our findings provide scientific support for local HFRS monitoring and control, and the development of a HFRS early warning system.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的传播模式与环境条件有关，包括气象因素和土地覆盖。本研究采用具有外生变量的季节性自回归综合移动平均模型（SARIMAX），探讨了中国东北两个典型 HFRS 暴发严重的县和西北两个县的 HFRS 与环境因素（包括最高温度、相对湿度、降雨量和归一化差异植被指数）之间的关系。结果表明，东北两个县的 HFRS 与 3-4 个月滞后的降雨量密切相关，而西北两个县的 HFRS 传播则与 1 个月或 5 个月滞后的相对湿度显著相关。此外，SARIMAX 模型对 HFRS 病例具有准确的预测能力。本研究结果为当地 HFRS 监测和控制以及 HFRS 预警系统的开发提供了科学依据。
