Betz Michael R, Jones Lauren E
Department of Human Sciences, The Ohio State University.
Am J Agric Econ. 2018 Oct;100(5):1357-1374. doi: 10.1093/ajae/aay069. Epub 2018 Sep 11.
The rise in drug overdose deaths in the United States since the turn of the millennium has been extraordinary. A popular narrative paints a picture whereby opioid overdoses among white, male, less-educated, rural workers have been caused by reduced economic opportunities borne by such people. In this article, we causally test the validity of this theory by using Bartik-type variables to explore the relationship between local economic conditions and county opioid overdose death rates. We add to the literature by exploring how both employment and wage growth in different types of industries are related to opioid overdose deaths for the population as a whole, as well as for rural (vs. urban), male (vs. female) and white (vs. black) populations. We find mixed evidence. Our results confirm that wage and employment growth in industries more likely to employ low-skill workers are important protective factors for rural, white males. However, we also find evidence that economic improvements in low-skill industries are just as important in protecting blacks and women against opioid overdoses, and for workers in metro counties. We also find evidence that employment growth in high-paying industries has led to increases in opioid overdoes rates.
自千禧年之交以来，美国药物过量致死人数的增长异常显著。一种流行的说法描绘了这样一幅图景：白人、男性、受教育程度较低的农村工人的阿片类药物过量致死是由这些人所面临的经济机会减少所致。在本文中，我们通过使用巴蒂克型变量来探索当地经济状况与县阿片类药物过量死亡率之间的关系，从而对这一理论的有效性进行因果检验。我们通过探究不同类型行业的就业和工资增长如何与全体人口以及农村（与城市相比）、男性（与女性相比）和白人（与黑人相比）人口的阿片类药物过量死亡相关，为该文献增添了内容。我们发现了复杂的证据。我们的结果证实，更有可能雇佣低技能工人的行业中的工资和就业增长是农村白人男性的重要保护因素。然而，我们也发现有证据表明，低技能行业的经济改善在保护黑人和女性免受阿片类药物过量影响以及对大都市县的工人来说同样重要。我们还发现有证据表明，高薪行业的就业增长导致了阿片类药物过量率的上升。
