Mueller Valerie, Gray Clark
Arizona State University, School of Politics and Global Studies, Tempe, AZ, USA.
Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Popul Environ. 2018 Sep;40(1):1-26. doi: 10.1007/s11111-018-0294-6. Epub 2018 Apr 14.
Given projected increases in the frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes in China, we examine the extent adults may be vulnerable to climate anomalies. We link nutrition, health, and economic data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1989-2011) to gridded climate data to identify which socioeconomic outcomes are particularly susceptible, including adult underweight incidence, body mass index, dietary intake, physical activity, illness, income, and food prices. We find warm temperatures augment the probability of being underweight among adults, with a particularly large impact for the elderly (ages > 60). Extremely dry and warm conditions produce a 3.3-percentage point increase in underweight status for this group. Consequences on nutrition coincide with changes in illness rather than dietary, income or purchasing power shifts. Social protection targeting areas prone to excessive heat may consider supplementing bundles of goods with a suite of health care provisions catering to the elderly.
鉴于预计中国降水和极端温度的频率将会增加，我们研究了成年人可能易受气候异常影响的程度。我们将中国健康与营养调查（1989 - 2011年）中的营养、健康和经济数据与网格化气候数据相联系，以确定哪些社会经济结果特别容易受到影响，包括成年人低体重发生率、体重指数、饮食摄入量、身体活动、疾病、收入和食品价格。我们发现温暖的气温会增加成年人体重过轻的概率，对老年人（年龄>60岁）的影响尤为显著。极端干燥和温暖的条件使该群体的低体重状况增加了3.3个百分点。对营养的影响与疾病变化相吻合，而不是饮食、收入或购买力的变化。针对易受热地区的社会保护措施可能考虑在一系列商品中补充一套针对老年人的医疗保健服务。
