Faculty of Social Sciences, Health Sciences and PERLA (Tampere Centre for Childhood, Youth and Family Research), University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland.
Department of Population and Health, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.
Eur J Public Health. 2019 Jun 1;29(3):517-523. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/cky242.
Youth unemployment is a critical life event, which may trigger other labour market-related disadvantages and detrimental health implications. To better understand the processes causing unemployment, we study how socioeconomic circumstances of successive generations and familial and health factors in adolescence predict youth unemployment trajectories between ages 16 and 28 in Finland from 2000 to 2009.
We used survey data from 1979 to 1997 on 12- to 18-year-old Finns (n = 43 238) linked with 1970-2009 registry-based data of their grandparents, parents and themselves. Growth mixture modelling and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used.
Three latent youth unemployment trajectories emerged; low (46%), decreasing (38%) and high (16%) risk groups. Of adolescent factors, low school achievement was the most important predictor of youth unemployment followed by smoking, stress symptoms and poor self-rated health. Grandparents' education predicted their grandchildren's unemployment but the effects of other grandparental socioeconomic circumstances mediated through parents' socioeconomic status (SES). Parents' low SES and education, and long-term unemployment increased the risk of the child's unemployment. Youth unemployment was related to low education at the age of 29.
Grandparents' education, family socioeconomic circumstances and adolescents' health and school achievement predict the developmental trajectory of youth unemployment. Youth unemployment is also related to low education in early adulthood. Our findings suggest that the health selection of unemployment works already in adolescence.
青年失业是一个关键的人生事件，可能会引发其他与劳动力市场相关的劣势和对健康的不利影响。为了更好地理解导致失业的过程，我们研究了代际的社会经济情况以及青少年时期的家庭和健康因素如何预测芬兰 2000 年至 2009 年期间 16 岁至 28 岁青年的失业轨迹。
我们使用了芬兰青少年（年龄在 12 至 18 岁）的调查数据（1979 年至 1997 年，n = 43238），并将其与 1970 年至 2009 年基于登记的其祖父母、父母和本人的数据进行了关联。我们采用了增长混合模型和多变量逻辑回归分析。
出现了三种潜在的青年失业轨迹：低风险（46%）、下降风险（38%）和高风险（16%）群体。在青少年因素中，学业成绩低是青年失业的最重要预测因素，其次是吸烟、压力症状和自我健康评价差。祖父母的教育程度预测了他们孙辈的失业情况，但其他祖父母的社会经济情况通过父母的社会经济地位（SES）产生了中介效应。父母 SES 低、教育程度低以及长期失业增加了子女失业的风险。青年失业与 29 岁时的低教育程度有关。
祖父母的教育程度、家庭社会经济状况以及青少年的健康和学业成绩预测了青年失业的发展轨迹。青年失业也与成年早期的低教育程度有关。我们的研究结果表明，失业的健康选择在青少年时期就已经起作用了。
