Ben Salem Kamel, Ben Abdelaziz Ahmed
Tunis Med. 2018 Oct-Nov;96(10-11):754-759.
Tunisia, with its tradition of periodic general census of the population since 1921, has a database to describe and analyze the evolution of the population not only from a quantitative point of view, but also its structure (especially according to age) over time.This work aims to verify the process of the demographic transition and describe the aging of our population. The different demographic indicators were collected from INS data, local press and international sources.From a broad-based age pyramid and fine point in 1956 we are today with a pyramid with a notch in the under 25 years. The proportion of people aged 60 and over increased from 5.5% of the total population in 1966 to 11.4% in 2014. They also confirm the rapid demographic transition in Tunisia. In half a century, birth and death rates dropped from 23.27 ‰ to 5.48 ‰ (r = -0.86, p <10-3) and from 45.47 ‰ to 18.87 ‰ in 2014 (r = -0.97, p <10-3) respectively between the years 1960 and 2014 (r = -0.94, p <10-3). At the same time, the total fertility rate fell from 7.01 in 1964 to 1.99 in 2005, to reach 2.4 in 2014.All of these indicators put Tunisia in the rank of aging average the "grandpa boom" is not for tomorrow.
自1921年以来，突尼斯就有定期进行全国人口普查的传统，拥有一个数据库，不仅可以从数量角度描述和分析人口的演变，还能分析其随时间推移的结构（尤其是按年龄划分）。这项工作旨在验证人口转变过程并描述我国人口老龄化情况。不同的人口指标是从国家统计局的数据、当地媒体和国际来源收集的。从1956年基础广泛的年龄金字塔和精细数据来看，如今我们的年龄金字塔在25岁以下出现了一个缺口。60岁及以上人口的比例从1966年占总人口的5.5%增至2014年的11.4%。这些数据也证实了突尼斯人口的快速转变。在1960年至2014年期间，出生率和死亡率分别从23.27‰降至5.48‰（r = -0.86，p <10-3），以及从45.47‰降至2014年的18.87‰（r = -0.97，p <10-3）（r = -0.94，p <10-3）。与此同时，总生育率从1964年的7.01降至2005年的1.99，并在2014年达到2.4。所有这些指标使突尼斯处于老龄化平均水平，“老年潮”并非明日之事。
