Navarro-Martinez Daniel, Loomes Graham, Isoni Andrea, Butler David, Alaoui Larbi
1Department of Economics and Business, Pompeu Fabra University, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain.
2Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona, Spain.
J Risk Uncertain. 2018;57(3):199-223. doi: 10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3. Epub 2018 Dec 28.
We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account.
我们构建了一个风险下的满意选择模型，该模型将期望效用理论（EUT）嵌入到有限理性的审议过程中。决策者通过反复从其潜在的EU偏好集中进行抽样，积累支持和反对替代选项的证据，直到支持某一选项的证据满足她期望的置信水平。尽管该模型以EUT为核心，但它产生的行为模式违反了标准的EUT公理，同时捕捉了选择概率、反应时间和置信判断之间的系统关系，而这些关系是未考虑审议因素的理论所无法涵盖的。
