Hudde Ansgar
Bamberg Graduate School of Social Sciences (BAGSS), University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany.
Eur J Popul. 2018 Jan 3;34(5):745-767. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9459-8. eCollection 2018 Dec.
Many authors argue that levels of childlessness and fertility are a function of changing gender relations, but the mechanisms behind this association remain unclear and mainly untested. This study argues that the societal variation in gender role attitudes explains the link: a great variation in attitudes among potential partners leads to uncertainty and conflicts, which depresses people's propensity for parenthood. This idea is tested with multilevel logistic regression models for 6305 individuals in 38 countries on all continents, using ISSP 2012 data. Measures for the average gender role attitude in the society as well as the dispersion in attitudes are regressed on whether individuals have at least one child or are childless. Attitudes are captured using factor analysis and are opinions towards the gendered division of given tasks and privileges, such as childrearing or the uptake of parental leave. The dispersion in attitudes is the standard deviation of the factor variable in the given country. The analysis gives support to the hypothesis: the greater the variation in gender role attitudes, the higher the chance for individuals to remain childless. The association is significant and holds against various robustness checks.
许多作者认为，不育和生育水平是性别关系变化的一个函数，但这种关联背后的机制仍不明确，且大多未经检验。本研究认为，社会中性别角色态度的差异解释了这种联系：潜在伴侣之间态度的巨大差异会导致不确定性和冲突，从而抑制人们为人父母的倾向。利用2012年国际社会调查项目（ISSP）的数据，对各大洲38个国家的6305名个体进行了多层次逻辑回归模型检验，以验证这一观点。将社会中平均性别角色态度的衡量指标以及态度的离散程度，对个体是否至少有一个孩子或无子女进行回归分析。态度通过因子分析来获取，是对诸如育儿或休育儿假等特定任务和特权的性别分工的看法。态度的离散程度是给定国家中因子变量的标准差。该分析支持了这一假设：性别角色态度的差异越大，个体无子女的几率就越高。这种关联是显著的，并且在各种稳健性检验中都成立。
