School of Psychology.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2019 Dec;148(12):2207-2217. doi: 10.1037/xge0000603. Epub 2019 Apr 29.
We investigated previous findings suggesting a paradoxical inconsistency of people's beliefs and choices: When making decisions under uncertainty, people seem to both overestimate the probability of rare events in their judgments and underweight the probability of the same rare events in their choices. In our reexamination, we found that people's beliefs are consistent with their decisions, but they do not necessarily correspond with the environment. Both overestimation and underweighting of the rare event seemed to result from (most, but not all) participants' mistaken belief that they can infer and exploit sequential patterns in a static environment. In addition, we found that such inaccurate representations can be improved through incentives. Finally, detailed analysis suggested a mixture of individual-level response patterns, which can give rise to an erroneous interpretation of group-level patterns. Our results offer an explanation for why beliefs and decisions can appear contradictory and present challenges to some current models of decisions under uncertainty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
我们考察了先前的研究结果，这些结果表明人们的信念和选择之间存在一种矛盾的不一致性：当人们在不确定的情况下做出决策时，他们似乎会在判断中过高估计罕见事件的概率，而在选择中低估同样罕见事件的概率。在我们的重新检验中，我们发现人们的信念与他们的决策是一致的，但并不一定与环境相对应。对罕见事件的高估和低估似乎都源于（但不是全部）参与者的错误信念，即他们可以推断和利用静态环境中的序列模式。此外，我们发现，通过激励措施可以改善这种不准确的表示。最后，详细的分析表明，个体水平的反应模式存在混合，这可能导致对群体水平模式的错误解释。我们的研究结果为为什么信念和决策看起来可能会相互矛盾提供了一种解释，并对一些当前的不确定条件下决策模型提出了挑战。
