Rahimi Hamed, Kalantari Alireza, Rafiee Noora, Khosravi Sajad
Student Research Committee, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
School of Management and Information, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Int J Prev Med. 2019 Jul 5;10:115. doi: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_322_18. eCollection 2019.
Social issues have short- or long-term as well as positive or negative effects on health systems. Identifying and analyzing events and trends help managers to make the vision and strategic planning. The purpose of this study is to identify the social trends and their impacts on the future of the Iranian health system.
Focus group discussion (FGD) was used to collect the data in 2017--18. The participants were selected through purposive sampling and the snowball method. The discussions were all written and recorded with the consent of the participants. A qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the data.
The participants believed that the most important social trends affecting future of health system in Iran are increase health literacy, demographic transition, nutritional pattern, migration and urbanization, marginal settlement, rising unemployment, and increased usage of personal cars.
The increase in health problems, healthcare costs, and mortality because of social behaviors and trends are considered as threats to the health system. Therefore, policymakers should reduce their negative effects by taking into account and focusing on these trends and making appropriate plans.
社会问题对卫生系统具有短期或长期以及积极或消极的影响。识别和分析事件及趋势有助于管理者制定愿景和战略规划。本研究的目的是识别社会趋势及其对伊朗卫生系统未来的影响。
2017年至2018年采用焦点小组讨论（FGD）收集数据。参与者通过目的抽样和滚雪球法选取。讨论内容经参与者同意后全部记录下来。采用定性内容分析法对数据进行分析。
参与者认为，影响伊朗卫生系统未来的最重要社会趋势是健康素养提高、人口转变、营养模式、移民与城市化、边缘定居点、失业率上升以及私家车使用增加。
因社会行为和趋势导致的健康问题、医疗成本和死亡率增加被视为对卫生系统的威胁。因此，政策制定者应通过考虑和关注这些趋势并制定适当计划来减少其负面影响。
