Rajabi F, Esmailzadeh H, Rostamigooran N, Majdzadeh R, Doshmangir L
Community Based Participatory Research Center (CBPR), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran ; Center for Academic and Health Policy (CAHP), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Iran J Public Health. 2013 Jan 1;42(Supple1):23-30. Print 2013.
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of important social and technological trends on health care delivery, in the context of developing "Iran's Health System Reform Plan by 2025".
A detailed review of the national and international literature was done to identify the main trends affecting health system. To collect the experts' opinions about important trends and their impact on health care delivery, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and semi-structured in-depth interviews techniques were used. The study was based on the STEEP model. Final results were approved in an expert's panel session.
The important social and technological trends, affecting health system in Iran in the next 15 years are demographic transition, epidemiologic transition, increasing bio-environmental pollution, increasing slums, increasing private sector partnership in health care delivery, moving toward knowledge-based society, development of information and communication technology, increasing use of high technologies in health system, and development of traditional and alternative medicine. The opportunities and threats resulting from the above mentioned trends were also assessed in this study.
Increasing healthcare cost due to some trends like demographic and epidemiologic transition and uncontrolled increase in using new technologies in health care is one of the most important threats that the health system will be facing. The opportunities that advancement in technology and moving toward knowledge-based society create are important and should not be ignored.
本研究旨在探讨在制定“2025年伊朗卫生系统改革计划”的背景下，重要社会和技术趋势对医疗服务的影响。
对国内外文献进行详细综述，以确定影响卫生系统的主要趋势。采用焦点小组讨论（FGD）和半结构化深度访谈技术，收集专家对重要趋势及其对医疗服务影响的意见。本研究基于STEEP模型。最终结果在专家小组会议上得到认可。
未来15年影响伊朗卫生系统的重要社会和技术趋势包括人口结构转变、疾病流行转变、生物环境污染加剧、贫民窟增加、医疗服务中私营部门伙伴关系增加、向知识型社会迈进、信息通信技术发展、卫生系统中高科技使用增加以及传统和替代医学发展。本研究还评估了上述趋势带来的机遇和威胁。
人口结构和疾病流行转变以及医疗保健领域新技术使用的无节制增加等趋势导致医疗成本上升，这是卫生系统将面临的最重要威胁之一。技术进步和向知识型社会迈进所带来的机遇十分重要，不应被忽视。
