Saberi Nasrollah, Raeisi Ahmad, Gorouhi Mohammad Amin, Vatandoost Hassan, Bozorg Omid Faramarz, Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad Ali
Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Medical Parasitology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Iran J Public Health. 2023 May;52(5):1061-1070. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v52i5.12724.
Although malaria is endemic in some areas of southeastern Iran, following the successful national malaria elimination plan (NMEP), the local transmission area has been shrunk. This study was aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of main vectors.
All documents related to research investigations conducted in Kerman Province on malaria vectors published during 2000-2019 were retrieved from scientific databases. Spatial distributions of the main vectors were mapped and modeled using MaxEnt ecological model. The future environmental suitability for main vectors was determined under three climate changes scenarios in the 2030s.
Five malaria vectors are present in Kerman Province. The best ecological niches for these vectors are located in the southern regions of the province under the current climatic condition as well as different climate change scenarios in the 2030s.
Climate change in 2030 will not have a significant impact on the distribution of malaria vectors in the region. Entomological monitoring is advised to update the spatial database of vectors of malaria in this malaria receptive region.
尽管疟疾在伊朗东南部的一些地区流行，但随着国家疟疾消除计划（NMEP）的成功实施，当地传播区域已经缩小。本研究旨在评估气候变化对主要病媒分布的影响。
从科学数据库中检索2000年至2019年期间在克尔曼省进行的关于疟疾媒介的所有研究调查相关文件。使用MaxEnt生态模型绘制并模拟主要病媒的空间分布。在2030年代的三种气候变化情景下确定主要病媒未来的环境适宜性。
克尔曼省存在五种疟疾媒介。在当前气候条件以及2030年代不同气候变化情景下，这些病媒的最佳生态位位于该省南部地区。
2030年的气候变化不会对该地区疟疾媒介的分布产生重大影响。建议进行昆虫学监测以更新这个疟疾易感地区疟疾媒介的空间数据库。
Zotero 插件
