Application of ensemble methods to analyse the decline of organochlorine pesticides in relation to the interactions between age, gender and time.

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are toxic chemicals that persist in human tissue. Short and long term exposure to OCPs have been shown to have adverse effects on human health. This motivates studies into the concentrations of pesticides in humans. However these studies typically emphasise the analysis of the main effects of age group, gender and time of sample collection. The interactions between main effects can distinguish variation in OCP concentration such as the difference in concentrations between genders of the same age group as well as age groups over time. These are less studied but may be equally or more important in understanding effects of OCPs in a population. The aim of this study was to identify interactions relevant to understanding OCP concentrations and utilise them appropriately in models. We propose a two stage analysis comprising of boosted regression trees (BRTs) and hierarchical modelling to study OCP concentrations. BRTs are used to discover influential interactions between age group, gender and time of sampling. Hierarchical models are then employed to test and infer the effect of the interactions on OCP concentrations. Results of our analysis show that the best fitting model of an interaction effect varied between OCPs. The interaction between age group and gender was most influential for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) concentrations. There was strong evidence of an interaction effect between age group and time for β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH) concentrations in >60 year olds as well as an interaction effect between age group and gender for HCB concentrations for adults aged >45 years. This study highlights the need to consider appropriate interaction effects in the analysis of OCP concentrations and provides further insight into the interplay of main effects on OCP concentration trends.