Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.
Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
Nat Commun. 2019 Dec 16;10(1):5730. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13628-x.
In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence.
2015 年和 2016 年,寨卡病毒(ZIKV)在拉丁美洲登革热病毒(DENV)流行地区肆虐。这两种病毒同属一个家族,共享一个传播媒介,可能通过人类免疫反应发生竞争或协同作用。我们研究了寨卡疫情之前、期间和之后巴西和哥伦比亚的登革热发病率。我们发现有证据表明,2017 年这两个国家的登革热发病率都异常低。我们调查了次国家级寨卡病毒发病率与登革热发病率变化之间的关系,结果喜忧参半。我们使用了多种关于 DENV 和 ZIKV 相互作用的假设进行模拟,发现交叉保护抑制了寨卡病毒爆发后的登革热发病率,而登革热发病率较低的时期之后会出现疫情反弹。我们的模拟表明,DENV 和 ZIKV 繁殖数之间的相关性可能会使寨卡病毒发病率与寨卡病毒后 DENV 发病率之间的关联复杂化,而且登革热发病率较低的时期之后会出现登革热发病率的大幅增加。
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