Orrù Graziella, Monaro Merylin, Conversano Ciro, Gemignani Angelo, Sartori Giuseppe
Department of Surgical, Medical, Molecular and Critical Area Pathology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
Department of General Psychology, University of Padua, Padua, Italy.
Front Psychol. 2020 Jan 10;10:2970. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02970. eCollection 2019.
Recent controversies about the level of replicability of behavioral research analyzed using statistical inference have cast interest in developing more efficient techniques for analyzing the results of psychological experiments. Here we claim that complementing the analytical workflow of psychological experiments with Machine Learning-based analysis will both maximize accuracy and minimize replicability issues. As compared to statistical inference, ML analysis of experimental data is model agnostic and primarily focused on prediction rather than inference. We also highlight some potential pitfalls resulting from adoption of Machine Learning based experiment analysis. If not properly used it can lead to over-optimistic accuracy estimates similarly observed using statistical inference. Remedies to such pitfalls are also presented such and building model based on cross validation and the use of ensemble models. ML models are typically regarded as black boxes and we will discuss strategies aimed at rendering more transparent the predictions.
最近,关于使用统计推断分析行为研究的可重复性水平的争议引发了人们对开发更高效技术来分析心理实验结果的兴趣。在此,我们声称,用基于机器学习的分析来补充心理实验的分析流程,将既能最大化准确性,又能最小化可重复性问题。与统计推断相比,对实验数据的机器学习分析不依赖特定模型,且主要侧重于预测而非推断。我们还强调了采用基于机器学习的实验分析所产生的一些潜在陷阱。如果使用不当,它可能会导致与使用统计推断时类似的过度乐观的准确性估计。我们还提出了针对此类陷阱的补救措施,例如基于交叉验证构建模型以及使用集成模型。机器学习模型通常被视为黑箱,我们将讨论旨在使预测更透明的策略。