Schwartz J
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115.
Environ Health Perspect. 1988 Jun;78:15-22. doi: 10.1289/ehp.887815.
A large body of experimental data has shown that lead raises blood pressure and increases responsiveness to alpha-adrenergic agonists in rats and pigeons. These studies suggest the need to look for a similar relationship in humans. This paper examines the robustness of the previously reported association between blood lead and blood pressure in adult males. The association remains strong and is essentially unchanged in tests that include nutritional factors and demographic factors, alone or together, or in tests that include insignificant terms. The relationship was not confounded by age; it held for all adult men in the 20-45 age group, the 40-59 age group, and the 46-74 age group. Interaction terms for 25 30-year age groups (20-49, 21-50,. . . , 45-74) were all insignificant, indicating no difference in the relationship by age. The relationship is also robust to the inclusion of a time trend to account possible omitted time-varying factors, and it held in a model that controlled for possible site effects. Given the strong experimental evidence, the relationship is likely causal.
大量实验数据表明，铅会使大鼠和鸽子的血压升高，并增强对α-肾上腺素能激动剂的反应性。这些研究表明有必要在人类中寻找类似的关系。本文研究了先前报道的成年男性血铅与血压之间关联的稳健性。在单独或同时纳入营养因素和人口统计学因素的测试中，或在纳入无关项的测试中，这种关联仍然很强且基本不变。这种关系不受年龄的混淆；在20 - 45岁年龄组、40 - 59岁年龄组和46 - 74岁年龄组的所有成年男性中均成立。25个30岁年龄组（20 - 49、21 - 50、……、45 - 74）的交互项均不显著，表明该关系在不同年龄之间没有差异。在纳入时间趋势以考虑可能遗漏的随时间变化因素的情况下，这种关系也是稳健的，并且在控制了可能的地点效应的模型中也成立。鉴于有力的实验证据，这种关系可能是因果关系。
