2019 年新型冠状病毒（武汉）基本繁殖数的初步预测。
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
机构信息
Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.
College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
出版信息
J Evid Based Med. 2020 Feb;13(1):3-7. doi: 10.1111/jebm.12376. Epub 2020 Feb 12.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
METHODS
Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
RESULTS
The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.
CONCLUSIONS
The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.
摘要
目的
估计武汉新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）的基本繁殖数。
方法
基于易感-暴露-感染-清除（SEIR） compartment 模型，并假设 2020 年 1 月 26 日之前出现症状的感染病例是未经干预的自由传播所致，我们根据报告的确诊病例和疑似病例以及其他研究小组理论上估计的感染病例数，以及从严重急性呼吸系统综合症（SARS）中获得的一些流行病学决定因素，估计了 2019-nCoV 的基本繁殖数。
结果
利用中国人民日报实时报告的 2019-nCoV 感染病例数，基本繁殖数在 2.8 到 3.3 之间；而基于国际同行预测的感染病例数，基本繁殖数在 3.2 到 3.9 之间。
结论
2019-nCoV 的早期传播能力接近或略高于 SARS。这是一种具有中等到高度传染性的可控疾病，需要及时有效的控制措施来防止进一步传播。
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