Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Clinics of Oilcrops Research Institute, CAAS, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
J Glob Health. 2020 Jun;10(1):011002. doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.011002.
Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37 914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track.
In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method.
The optimal parameters were estimated as R = 1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47), TI = 14 (interquartile range = 14-14) and TE = 3.0 (interquartile range = 2.8-3.1). Based on these parameters, the number of infected individuals in Wuhan city may reach the peak around February 19 at about 47 000 people. Once entering March, the epidemic would gradually decline, and end around the late March. It is worth noting that the above prediction is based on the assumption that the number of susceptible population N = 200 000 will not increase. If the epidemic situation is not properly controlled, the peak of infected number can be further increased and the peak time will be a little postponed. It was expected that the epidemic would subside in early March, and disappear gradually towards the late March.
The epidemic situation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan was effectively controlled after the closure of the city, and the disease transmission index also decreased significantly. It is expected that the peak of epidemic situation would be reached in late February and end in March.
2019 年新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）在武汉爆发，引起了严重的公共卫生关注。截至 2020 年 2 月 15 日，武汉市累计确诊感染病例已达 37914 例，死亡 1123 例，分别占中国确诊病例总数的 56.9%和死亡病例总数的 73.7%。人们急切地想知道疫情何时能得到完全控制，人们的工作和生活何时能恢复正常。
本研究采用 SEIR 模型方法，利用武汉市封城后截至 2020 年 2 月 12 日的数据，对 2019-nCoV 在武汉的疫情动态和趋势进行分析。
估计的最优参数为 R=1.44（四分位间距：1.40-1.47），TI=14（四分位间距=14-14）和 TE=3.0（四分位间距=2.8-3.1）。基于这些参数，武汉市感染人数可能在 2 月 19 日左右达到峰值，约为 47000 人。一旦进入 3 月，疫情将逐渐下降，3 月底结束。值得注意的是，上述预测是基于假设易感人群数量 N=200000 不会增加的情况下得出的。如果疫情得不到有效控制，感染人数的峰值可能会进一步增加，峰值时间也会稍有推迟。预计疫情将在 3 月初得到控制，3 月底逐渐消失。
武汉市封城后，2019-nCoV 疫情得到有效控制，疾病传播指数也显著下降。预计疫情高峰期将在 2 月底出现，3 月底结束。
