EpiX Analytics, Fort Collins, USA.
J Nutr. 2020 May 1;150(5):985-988. doi: 10.1093/jn/nxaa020.
The recently published EAT-Lancet Commission report on dietary impacts on the environment suggested that their proposed diet could prevent more than 10 million annual premature mortalities from noncommunicable diseases globally. The report did not meet standards for transparency and replicability, nor did it fully account for statistical uncertainty. Our attempt to replicate the mortality calculations for the United States revealed flaws in the assumptions and methods used to estimate the avoided mortalities. After correcting some calculation errors and fully accounting for uncertainty in the avoided mortalities, the mortality reduction effect of the EAT-Lancet proposed diet in the USA is no greater than the impact of energy consumption changes that would prevent under-weight, over-weight, and obesity alone. As our findings call into question the global conclusions of the EAT-Lancet report, futher independent validation is needed before it can be used to inform dietary guidelines.
最近发表的《柳叶刀饮食委员会报告》（EAT-Lancet Commission report）探讨了饮食对环境的影响，该报告指出，他们建议的饮食方案可以预防全球超过 1000 万人因非传染性疾病而过早死亡。然而，该报告不符合透明度和可重复性标准，也没有充分考虑统计不确定性。我们试图复制美国的死亡率计算，结果发现用于估计避免死亡人数的假设和方法存在缺陷。在纠正了一些计算错误并充分考虑避免死亡人数的不确定性之后，EAT-Lancet 所建议的饮食方案在美国对降低死亡率的影响并不大于单独预防体重过轻、超重和肥胖的能量消耗变化的影响。由于我们的研究结果对《柳叶刀饮食委员会报告》的全球结论提出了质疑，因此在将其用于指导饮食建议之前，需要进一步进行独立验证。
