伊朗北部戈尔斯坦省肺癌发病率呈上升趋势（2004-2016 年）。

Increasing trends of lung cancer in Golestan province, Northern Iran (2004-2016).

机构信息

Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.

Department of Internal medicine, Sayyad Shirazi hospital, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.

出版信息

Cancer Epidemiol. 2020 Apr;65:101687. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2020.101687. Epub 2020 Feb 19.

DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2020.101687

PMID:32087554

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to present the time trends and geographical distribution of lung cancer in Golestan province, a high-risk area for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Northern Iran (2004-2016).

METHODS

Data on incident primary lung cancers were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry. The data were analyzed by CanReg-5 software to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs). We used Joinpoint software for time trend analysis. Average annual percent changes were calculated. The contribution of population aging, population growth and risk to the overall changes in incidence of lung cancer were determined using partitioning analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 1829 cases of lung cancer were registered by the GPCR during 2004-2016, of which 1274 (69.7%, ASR in 2016 = 21.3) were men and 555 (30.3%, ASR in 2016 = 11.4) were women. The results of Joinpoint regression suggested a significant increasing trend in incidence of lung cancer in Golestan province during 2004 and 2016 (AAPC = 3.74; p-value = 0.01) with more prominent increasing in rural population (AAPC = 4.93; p-value<0.01). The number of new cases of lung cancer increased by 131.6% (from 98 in 2004 to 227 in 2016), of which 34.1%, 22.3% and 75.3% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Hot points of lung cancer were found in western parts of the Golestan.

CONCLUSION

With high incidence rates and increasing trends of lung cancer, further studies are warranted to clarify the role of TB and other risk factors on its burden in this population.

摘要

简介

我们旨在展示伊朗北部戈勒斯坦省（一个肺结核高发地区）的肺癌时间趋势和地理分布情况（2004-2016 年）。

方法

从戈勒斯坦人群癌症登记处获得原发性肺癌发病数据。使用 CanReg-5 软件分析数据，计算年龄标准化发病率（ASR）。我们使用 Joinpoint 软件进行时间趋势分析，计算平均年变化百分比。通过分区分析确定人口老龄化、人口增长和风险对肺癌发病率总体变化的贡献。

结果

总体而言，2004-2016 年，GPCR 共登记了 1829 例肺癌病例，其中男性 1274 例（占 69.7%，2016 年 ASR = 21.3），女性 555 例（占 30.3%，2016 年 ASR = 11.4）。Joinpoint 回归结果表明，戈勒斯坦省肺癌发病率在 2004 年至 2016 年期间呈显著上升趋势（AAPC = 3.74；p 值 = 0.01），农村地区上升更为明显（AAPC = 4.93；p 值<0.01）。肺癌新发病例数增加了 131.6%（从 2004 年的 98 例增加到 2016 年的 227 例），其中 34.1%、22.3%和 75.3%归因于人口规模、人口老龄化和风险。戈勒斯坦的西部地区是肺癌高发地区。