Terefe Abiyot Negash, Zewudie Samuel Getachew
Jimma University, College of Natural Sciences, Department of Statistics, Jimma, Oromia, Ethiopia.
Mizan-Tepi University, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Department of Biology, Tepi, Ethiopia.
J Res Health Sci. 2021 Aug 12;21(3):e00523. doi: 10.34172/jrhs.2021.59.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting both lives of millions of people and the global economy of the world day by day. This study aimed to determine the trend of COVID-19 and its predictions in Ethiopia.
This study was conducted based on a time series design.
The required data were collected from the Ethiopian COVID-19 monitoring platform beginning from the onset of the disease in the country until March 28, 2021. Furthermore, the auto-regressive integrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on the transmission and disease-related human deaths.
The mean daily infection and death of COVID-19 in Ethiopia were 533.47±466.62 and 7.45±6.72, respectively. The peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in March, 2021, and August, 2020. In addition, the trend of daily new deaths (P=0.000) and infection (P=0.000) was significantly increasing. It is expected that around 10 million (8.6%) and 138,084.64 (0.12%) Ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively.
The disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month. The highest peaks of COVID-19 infection and death were in March 2021 and August 2020. For the next end of August 2021, the COVID-19 daily new infection, new death, total case, and total death are expected to be increased. If this epidemic disease is not controlled, Ethiopia will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）日益影响着数百万人的生活和全球经济。本研究旨在确定埃塞俄比亚COVID-19的趋势及其预测。
本研究基于时间序列设计进行。
所需数据从埃塞俄比亚COVID-19监测平台收集，自该国疾病爆发起至2021年3月28日。此外，自回归积分滑动平均模型用于基于日的时间序列。泊松回归和负二项回归也用于观察月份对传播及与疾病相关的人类死亡的影响。
埃塞俄比亚COVID-19的每日平均感染数和死亡数分别为533.47±466.62和7.45±6.72。该国感染和死亡的峰值分别出现在2021年3月和2020年8月。此外，每日新增死亡（P=0.000）和感染（P=0.000）的趋势显著增加。预计分别约有1000万（8.6%）埃塞俄比亚人会感染，138084.64人（0.12%）会死亡。
疾病传播和死亡情况每日、每月都有所不同。COVID-19感染和死亡的最高峰出现在2021年3月和2020年8月。预计到2021年8月底，COVID-19的每日新增感染、新增死亡、总病例数和总死亡数都会增加。如果这种流行病得不到控制，埃塞俄比亚将面临医院严重短缺的问题，疫情甚至会变得更糟。
