Dehnavieh Reza, Khosravi Sajad, Mehrolhassani Mohammad Hossein, Haghdoost AliAkbar, Amini Saeed
Medical Informatics Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Department of Health Services Management, School of Public Health, Bam University of Medical Sciences, Bam, Iran.
Int J Prev Med. 2019 Oct 9;10:158. doi: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_334_18. eCollection 2019.
Primary healthcare system in Iran has played an extensive role in promoting people health in the past decades. However, regarding universal developments in the different global aspects effective on health, the performance of this system has been influenced significantly. The aim of the present research is to identify the future trends of the primary health care in Iran.
The participants of this qualitative case study were experts in primary healthcare, which were selected and interviewed through purposive sampling method. The interview process was saturated after 25 interviews, so we stopped the process at this point. Framework analysis based on STEEP model used to analysis the interviews.
The most important social/value, technological, economic, environmental, and political future trends of primary healthcare in Iran included demographic transition, epidemiological transition, social and cultural changes, emergence of modern and advanced technologies, internet and cyberspace, budgeting limitations, resource management, changing paradigm from volume to value in providing health services, environmental pollutions, natural disasters, health governance, intellectual paradigm of senior officials, regional security, international development, and other internal factors of the health system.
The identified factors can be turned into opportunities for Iran primary healthcare system if health planners and policymakers have a deep and accurate look at these influential factors and manage them properly.
在过去几十年里，伊朗的初级医疗保健系统在促进民众健康方面发挥了广泛作用。然而，鉴于全球不同方面对健康产生影响的普遍发展情况，该系统的表现受到了显著影响。本研究的目的是确定伊朗初级医疗保健的未来趋势。
本定性案例研究的参与者是初级医疗保健领域的专家，通过目的抽样法进行选择和访谈。在进行了25次访谈后，访谈过程达到饱和，因此我们在此处停止了该过程。基于STEEP模型的框架分析用于分析访谈内容。
伊朗初级医疗保健最重要的社会/价值观、技术、经济、环境和政治未来趋势包括人口转变、流行病学转变、社会和文化变化、现代和先进技术的出现、互联网和网络空间、预算限制、资源管理、在提供卫生服务方面从数量到价值的范式转变、环境污染、自然灾害、卫生治理、高级官员的思维范式、地区安全、国际发展以及卫生系统的其他内部因素。
如果卫生规划者和政策制定者深入、准确地审视这些影响因素并妥善管理，所确定的因素可为伊朗初级医疗保健系统带来机遇。
