Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ ÖAW and WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Indian Institute of Dalit Studies, New Delhi, India.
PLoS One. 2020 Apr 10;15(4):e0231479. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231479. eCollection 2020.
India is expected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the coming decades, which poses serious risks to human health and wellbeing in the country.
This paper aims to shed light on the possible detrimental effects of monsoon weather shocks on childhood undernutrition in India using the Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16, in combination with geo-referenced climate data.
Undernutrition is captured through measures of height-for-age, weight-for-height, stunting and wasting among children aged 0-59 months. The standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is used to measure climatic conditions during critical periods of child development.
The results of a multivariate logistic regression model show that climate anomalies experienced in utero and during infancy are associated with an increased risk of child undernutrition; exposure to excessive monsoon precipitation during these early periods of life elevates the risk of stunting, particularly for children in the tropical wet and humid sub-tropical regions. In contrast, the risk of stunting is reduced for children residing in the mountainous areas who have experienced excessive monsoon precipitation during infancy. The evidence on the short-term effects of climate shocks on wasting is inconclusive. We additionally show that excessive precipitation, particularly during the monsoon season, is associated with an increased risk of contracting diarrhoea among children under five. Diseases transmitted through water, such as diarrhoea, could be one important channel through which excessive rainfall increases the risk of stunting.
We find a positive association between childhood undernutrition and exposure to excessive monsoon precipitation in India. Pronounced differences across climate zones are found. The findings of the present analysis warn of the urgent need to provide health assistance to children in flood-prone areas.
未来几十年，印度预计将经历极端天气事件的频率和强度的增加，这对该国的人类健康和福祉构成了严重威胁。
本文旨在使用 2015-16 年人口与健康调查数据，结合地理参考气候数据，阐明季风天气冲击对印度儿童营养不良的可能不利影响。
通过 0-59 个月儿童的身高年龄、体重身高、发育迟缓、消瘦等指标来衡量营养不良。采用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）来衡量儿童发育关键期的气候条件。
多变量逻辑回归模型的结果表明，胎儿期和婴儿期经历的气候异常与儿童营养不良的风险增加有关；生命早期过度的季风降水暴露会增加发育迟缓的风险，尤其是在热带湿润和亚热带地区的儿童。相比之下，在婴儿期经历过度季风降水的山区儿童，发育迟缓的风险降低。关于气候冲击对消瘦的短期影响的证据尚无定论。我们还表明，过多的降水，特别是在季风季节，与五岁以下儿童腹泻的风险增加有关。通过水传播的疾病，如腹泻，可能是过度降雨增加发育迟缓风险的一个重要途径。
我们发现印度儿童营养不良与过度季风降水之间存在正相关关系。气候带之间存在显著差异。本分析的结果警告说，迫切需要向洪水多发地区的儿童提供医疗援助。
