Cai Chao-Ran, Wu Zhi-Xi, Guan Jian-Yue
Institute of Computational Physics and Complex Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2014 May-Jun;62:36-43. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2014.04.005. Epub 2014 May 7.
The transmission of infectious, yet vaccine-preventable, diseases is a typical complex social phenomenon, where the increasing level of vaccine update in the population helps to inhibit the epidemic spreading, which in turn, however, discourages more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, due to the "externality effect" raised by vaccination. We herein study the impact of vaccination strategies, pure, continuous (rather than adopt vaccination definitely, the individuals choose to taking vaccine with some probabilities), or continuous with randomly mutation, on the vaccination dynamics with a spatial susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemiological model. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that there is a crossover behavior of the final vaccine coverage between the pure-strategy case and the continuous-strategy case, and remarkably, both the final vaccination level and epidemic size in the continuous-strategy case are less than them in the pure-strategy case when vaccination is cheap. We explain this phenomenon by analyzing the organization process of the individuals in the continuous-strategy case in the equilibrium. Our results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on other spatial networks, like the Erdős-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks.
可通过疫苗预防的传染病传播是一种典型的复杂社会现象,人群中疫苗接种率的提高有助于抑制疫情传播,但由于疫苗接种产生的“外部效应”,这反过来又使更多人不愿参与疫苗接种活动。我们在此用一个空间易感-接种-感染-康复(SVIR)流行病学模型研究疫苗接种策略(纯策略、连续策略(个体不是肯定接种疫苗,而是以一定概率选择接种)或带有随机突变的连续策略)对疫苗接种动态的影响。通过广泛的蒙特卡洛模拟,我们表明在纯策略情形和连续策略情形之间最终疫苗接种覆盖率存在交叉行为,并且值得注意的是,当疫苗接种成本较低时,连续策略情形下的最终接种水平和疫情规模均小于纯策略情形。我们通过分析连续策略情形下处于均衡状态的个体的组织过程来解释这一现象。我们的结果对于在其他空间网络(如厄多斯-雷尼网络和巴拉巴西-阿尔伯特网络)上定义的SVIR动态是稳健的。