Zhong Linhao, Mu Lin, Li Jing, Wang Jiaying, Yin Zhe, Liu Darong
1Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East AsiaInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China.
2College of Life Sciences and OceanographyShenzhen UniversityShenzhen518060China.
IEEE Access. 2020 Mar 9;8:51761-51769. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2979599. eCollection 2020.
The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has been treated as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. This work made an early prediction of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China based on a simple mathematical model and limited epidemiological data. Combing characteristics of the historical epidemic, we found part of the released data is unreasonable. Through ruling out the unreasonable data, the model predictions exhibit that the number of the cumulative 2019-nCoV cases may reach 76,000 to 230,000, with a peak of the unrecovered infectives (22,000-74,000) occurring in late February to early March. After that, the infected cases will rapidly monotonically decrease until early May to late June, when the 2019-nCoV outbreak will fade out. Strong anti-epidemic measures may reduce the cumulative infected cases by 40%-49%. The improvement of medical care can also lead to about one-half transmission decrease and effectively shorten the duration of the 2019-nCoV.
2019新型冠状病毒（2019 - nCoV）疫情已被世界卫生组织视为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。这项工作基于一个简单的数学模型和有限的流行病学数据，对中国2019 - nCoV疫情进行了早期预测。梳理历史疫情特征时，我们发现部分公布的数据不合理。排除不合理数据后，模型预测显示，2019 - nCoV累计病例数可能达到7.6万至23万，未康复感染者峰值（2.2万 - 7.4万）出现在2月下旬至3月初。此后，感染病例将迅速单调下降，直至5月初至6月下旬，届时2019 - nCoV疫情将逐渐消退。强有力的抗疫措施可能使累计感染病例减少40% - 49%。医疗救治水平的提高也可使传播减少约一半，并有效缩短2019 - nCoV的持续时间。
