Conibear Luke, Butt Edward W, Knote Christoph, Arnold Stephen R, Spracklen Dominick V
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Centre for Doctoral Training in Bioenergy University of Leeds Leeds UK.
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK.
Geohealth. 2018 Jul 3;2(7):196-211. doi: 10.1029/2018GH000139. eCollection 2018 Jul.
Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business-as-usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high-resolution online-coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.
暴露于高浓度的环境细颗粒物（PM）是印度公共卫生的主要风险因素，会导致巨大的疾病负担。预计印度照常的经济和工业增长将增加排放、恶化空气质量，并在未来几十年增加相关疾病负担。在此，我们使用高分辨率在线耦合模型来估计不同空气污染控制途径对印度环境PM浓度和人类健康的影响。我们发现，在排放无变化的情况下，由于人口老龄化和增长增加了易受空气污染影响的人数，2050年因暴露于环境PM导致的疾病负担将比2015年增加75%。我们估计，国际能源署的新政策情景（NPS）和2050年的清洁空气情景（CAS）可分别将环境PM浓度降低至2015年水平以下9%和68%，每年抵消6.1万和61万例过早死亡，这分别占因人口增长和老龄化导致的过早死亡预计增加数的9%和91%。在印度全国范围内，CAS是降低环境PM浓度和相关疾病负担最有效的情景，将2050年每10万人的死亡率降低至2015年控制水平以下15%。然而，即使在如此严格的排放控制政策下，与2015年相比，人口增长和老龄化导致因暴露于颗粒物空气污染造成的过早死亡估计数仍增加7%，凸显了印度改善公共卫生努力面临的挑战。
