Vincenzi Simone, Jesensek Dusan, Crivelli Alain J
Independent Scholar, Most Na Soci, Tolmin, Slovenia.
Tolmin Angling Association, Most Na Soci, Tolmin, Slovenia.
R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Apr 8;7(4):192146. doi: 10.1098/rsos.192146. eCollection 2020 Apr.
The differences in life-history traits and processes between organisms living in the same or different populations contribute to their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We developed mixed-effect model formulations of the popular size-at-age von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth functions to estimate individual and group variation in body growth, using as a model system four freshwater fish populations, where tagged individuals were sampled for more than 10 years. We used the software Template Model Builder to estimate the parameters of the mixed-effect growth models. Tests on data that were not used to estimate model parameters showed good predictions of individual growth trajectories using the mixed-effects models and starting from one single observation of body size early in life; the best models had > 0.80 over more than 500 predictions. Estimates of asymptotic size from the Gompertz and von Bertalanffy models were not significantly correlated, but their predictions of size-at-age of individuals were strongly correlated ( > 0.99), which suggests that choosing between the best models of the two growth functions would have negligible effects on the predictions of size-at-age of individuals. Model results pointed to size ranks that are largely maintained throughout the lifetime of individuals in all populations.
生活在相同或不同种群中的生物体在生活史特征和过程上的差异，促成了它们的生态和进化动态。我们针对广为人知的年龄-体长冯·贝塔朗菲生长函数和冈珀茨生长函数，开发了混合效应模型公式，以估计个体和群体在身体生长方面的差异，我们将四个淡水鱼种群作为模型系统，在这些种群中，对标记个体进行了超过10年的采样。我们使用软件模板模型构建器来估计混合效应生长模型的参数。对未用于估计模型参数的数据进行的测试表明，使用混合效应模型并从生命早期的一次单一体长观测开始，能够很好地预测个体生长轨迹；在超过500次预测中，最佳模型的预测准确率大于0.80。冈珀茨模型和冯·贝塔朗菲模型对渐近体长的估计没有显著相关性，但它们对个体年龄-体长的预测具有很强的相关性（大于0.99），这表明在这两种生长函数的最佳模型之间进行选择，对个体年龄-体长预测的影响可以忽略不计。模型结果表明，在所有种群中，个体在其一生中的大部分时间里，体型排名基本保持不变。
