Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, 75015, Paris, France.
Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Commun. 2020 Jun 5;11(1):2842. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16516-x.
Characterizing the circulation of Mayaro virus (MAYV), an emerging arbovirus threat, is essential for risk assessment but challenging due to cross-reactivity with other alphaviruses such as chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Here, we develop an analytical framework to jointly assess MAYV epidemiology and the extent of cross-reactivity with CHIKV from serological data collected throughout French Guiana (N = 2697). We find strong evidence of an important sylvatic cycle for MAYV with most infections occurring near the natural reservoir in rural areas and in individuals more likely to go to the forest (i.e., adult males) and with seroprevalences of up to 18% in some areas. These findings highlight the need to strengthen MAYV surveillance in the region and showcase how modeling can improve interpretation of cross-reacting assays.
表征梅耶罗病毒（MAYV）的传播情况对于风险评估至关重要，但由于其与基孔肯雅病毒（CHIKV）等其他甲病毒存在交叉反应，因此具有一定挑战性。在这里，我们开发了一个分析框架，从法属圭亚那各地收集的血清学数据中，联合评估 MAYV 流行病学和与 CHIKV 的交叉反应程度（N=2697）。我们发现 MAYV 存在重要的森林型循环，大多数感染发生在农村地区的天然储主附近，以及更有可能进入森林的个体（即成年男性）中，在某些地区的血清流行率高达 18%。这些发现强调了需要加强该地区对 MAYV 的监测，并展示了建模如何改善对交叉反应检测的解释。
