• 文献检索
  • 文档翻译
  • 深度研究
  • 学术资讯
  • Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
  • 邀请有礼
  • 套餐&价格
  • 历史记录
应用&插件
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
定价
高级版会员购买积分包购买API积分包
服务
文献检索文档翻译深度研究API 文档MCP 服务
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利：CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2026

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法，用中文像聊天一样搜索，搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐，让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版，准确专业，支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式，支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述，25分钟生成高质量综述，智能提取关键信息，辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验

2019冠状病毒病的数学建模：以意大利为例

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy.

作者信息

Ghosh Jayanta Kumar, Biswas Sudhanshu Kumar, Sarkar Susmita, Ghosh Uttam

机构信息

Boalia Junior High School, Nadia, West Bengal, India.

Department of Mathematics, Sripat Singh College, West Bengal, India.

出版信息

Math Comput Simul. 2022 Apr;194:1-18. doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.11.008. Epub 2021 Nov 19.

DOI:10.1016/j.matcom.2021.11.008
PMID:34840409
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8603917/
Abstract

This manuscript describes a mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19 to investigate the dynamics of this pandemic disease and we have fitted this model to the current COVID-19 cases in Italy. We have obtained the basic reproduction number which plays a crucial role on the stability of disease free equilibrium point. Backward bifurcation with respect to the cure rate of treatment occurs conditionally. It is clear from the sensitivity analysis that the developments of self immunities with proper maintaining of social distancing of the exposed and asymptomatic individuals play key role for controlling the disease. We have validated the model by considering the COVID-19 cases of Italy and the future situations of epidemicity in Italy have been predicted from the model. We have estimated the basic reproduction number for the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and effective reproduction number has also been studied. Finally, an optimal control model has been formulated and solved to realize the positive impacts of adapting lock down by many countries for maintaining social distancing.

摘要

本手稿描述了一种新冠病毒的数学流行病学模型，以研究这种大流行疾病的动态，并且我们已将该模型应用于意大利当前的新冠病例。我们获得了基本再生数，它对无病平衡点的稳定性起着关键作用。关于治疗治愈率的反向分岔有条件地发生。从敏感性分析中可以清楚地看出，对于已暴露和无症状个体，在适当保持社交距离的情况下发展自身免疫力对控制疾病起着关键作用。我们通过考虑意大利的新冠病例验证了该模型，并从该模型预测了意大利未来的疫情情况。我们估计了意大利新冠疫情爆发的基本再生数，还研究了有效再生数。最后，制定并求解了一个最优控制模型，以认识到许多国家实施封锁以保持社交距离所产生的积极影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/69c142f75049/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/0b08d95fac36/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/b6414619d754/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/0a37a7089143/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/902c458c32fd/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/f23654e173a1/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/78ddfdd0760c/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/c726aafac1c2/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/bcbf1ada8f9c/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/3560d3b8916f/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/69c142f75049/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/0b08d95fac36/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/b6414619d754/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/0a37a7089143/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/902c458c32fd/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/f23654e173a1/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/78ddfdd0760c/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/c726aafac1c2/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/bcbf1ada8f9c/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/3560d3b8916f/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d5b/8603917/69c142f75049/gr10_lrg.jpg

相似文献

1
Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy.2019冠状病毒病的数学建模：以意大利为例
Math Comput Simul. 2022 Apr;194:1-18. doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.11.008. Epub 2021 Nov 19.
2
A mathematical study on the spread of COVID-19 considering social distancing and rapid assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia.一项考虑社交距离和快速评估的新冠肺炎传播数学研究：以印度尼西亚雅加达为例。
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct;139:110042. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110042. Epub 2020 Jun 28.
3
Modeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of novel coronavirus with optimal control analysis with a case study.通过案例研究，运用最优控制分析对非药物干预措施对新型冠状病毒动态的影响进行建模。
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct;139:110075. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110075. Epub 2020 Jul 3.
4
Modelling the spread of COVID-19 with new fractal-fractional operators: Can the lockdown save mankind before vaccination?用新的分形分数算子对COVID-19传播进行建模：封锁措施能否在疫苗接种前拯救人类？
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul;136:109860. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109860. Epub 2020 May 29.
5
Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine.考虑社交距离、检测和隔离措施下，意大利、德国和土耳其新冠病毒的传播动态
J Infect Dev Ctries. 2020 Jul 31;14(7):713-720. doi: 10.3855/jidc.12844.
6
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission: the roles of intervention strategies and lockdown.新冠病毒传播的数学建模：干预策略和封锁的作用。
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Sep 10;17(5):5961-5986. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020318.
7
Mathematical analysis of a COVID-19 model with different types of quarantine and isolation.具有不同类型隔离和检疫措施的新冠疫情模型的数学分析
Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan;20(1):1344-1375. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023061. Epub 2022 Oct 28.
8
Deciphering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India: optimal control and cost effective analysis.解析印度 COVID-19 的传播动态：最优控制和成本效益分析。
J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):665-712. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2116493.
9
Modelling the role of optimal social distancing on disease prevalence of COVID-19 epidemic.模拟最佳社交距离对新冠疫情疾病流行率的作用。
Int J Dyn Control. 2021;9(3):1053-1077. doi: 10.1007/s40435-020-00721-z. Epub 2020 Nov 9.
10
COVID-19 pandemic in India: a mathematical model study.印度的COVID-19大流行：一项数学模型研究。
Nonlinear Dyn. 2020;102(1):537-553. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05958-z. Epub 2020 Sep 21.

引用本文的文献

1
Stochastic analysis of a COVID-19 model with effects of vaccination and different transition rates: Real data approach.具有疫苗接种效果和不同转移率的COVID-19模型的随机分析：基于实际数据的方法。
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2023 May;170:113395. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113395. Epub 2023 Mar 27.
2
Can infectious modelling be applicable globally - lessons from COVID 19.传染病建模能在全球适用吗——来自新冠疫情的教训
Curr Opin Environ Sci Health. 2022 Oct 22:100399. doi: 10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100399.
3
Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive.

本文引用的文献

1
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms.SARS-CoV-2 从无 COVID-19 症状者传播。
JAMA Netw Open. 2021 Jan 4;4(1):e2035057. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.35057.
2
Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection : A Narrative Review.无症状 SARS-CoV-2 感染的流行情况：一项叙述性综述。
Ann Intern Med. 2020 Sep 1;173(5):362-367. doi: 10.7326/M20-3012. Epub 2020 Jun 3.
3
Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.诊断延迟对新型冠状病毒肺炎传播的影响。
强调疫苗接种推动的新冠病毒多易感人群模型的全局稳定性及参数敏感性分析
Math Comput Simul. 2023 Jan;203:741-766. doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.07.012. Epub 2022 Jul 23.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar 11;17(3):2725-2740. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020149.
4
A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action.中国武汉市 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发的概念模型，包括个体反应和政府行动。
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:211-216. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058. Epub 2020 Mar 4.
5
Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19.新冠病毒无症状感染者的传播。
JAMA. 2020 Apr 14;323(14):1406-1407. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2565.
6
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.实时预测和预报源自中国武汉的 2019-nCoV 疫情在国内和国际的潜在传播：一项建模研究。
Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. Epub 2020 Jan 31.
7
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.新型冠状病毒感染肺炎在中国武汉的早期传播动力学。
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. Epub 2020 Jan 29.
8
Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China.中国武汉地区 2019 年新型冠状病毒感染患者的临床特征。
Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):497-506. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5. Epub 2020 Jan 24.
9
The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health - The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China.新型冠状病毒持续的2019 - nCoV疫情对全球健康构成威胁——中国武汉最新的2019新型冠状病毒爆发。
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Feb;91:264-266. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009. Epub 2020 Jan 14.
10
Pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China: potential for international spread via commercial air travel.中国武汉不明原因肺炎：经商业航空旅行传播至国际的潜在风险。
J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 13;27(2). doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa008.